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Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

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Q4 Opens With A Rally In Oil Prices

Eighty-seven years to the day after Duke Ellington recorded ‘The Mooche’, and China is mooching off for a five-day holiday after delivering some better-than-expected manufacturing data. The final Caixin print came in at 47.2, above the preliminary print of 47.0, while the official number came in at 49.8 – higher than both expectations and last month’s number. Chinese markets are now closed until next Thursday, as a number of national holidays are observed.

Across to Europe, and although Spain, Italy, and Germany all showed prints below expectations, France came in stronger to lift the aggregate print for the Eurozone up to consensus of 52. The UK’s number was better than expected at 51.5, but below last month’s print of 51.6. Onto the U.S., and while we get manufacturing data in a bit, we have seen weekly jobless claims come in a bit worse than expected ahead of tomorrow’s official monthly unemployment release. Related: Germany Now Faced With Thousands Of Aging Wind Farms

Switching gears, there is an interesting piece today looking at the negative impact on the Nigerian economy from falling oil prices. Oil accounts for nearly 70 percent of Nigeria’s annual budget of $22 billion, hence the drop in oil prices is leading to a corresponding drop in economic growth. Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow at just 2.8 percent this year, after a decade of averaging above 7 percent.

Related: The Peak Oil Story We Have Been Told Is Wrong

Crude prices are rallying to start this final quarter of the year, boosted by overnight Chinese manufacturing numbers, in combination with rising geopolitical tension amid air strikes by Russia in Syria. Saudi Arabia is expected to cut its prices into Asia for November as it seemingly continues its pursuit of market share, while Mexico has held a successful second auction (after a lackluster first one); winning bids have been assigned for three of five oil and gas areas up for grabs.

By Matt Smith

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