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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

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Oil Tycoon Hamm Slams EIA’s Overoptimistic Shale Forecasts

Harold Hamm

As a powerful oil market mover, the EIA needs to have “more sophisticated” forecasts about U.S. shale production, because overly optimistic expectations depress oil prices and disadvantages the U.S. market, shale billionaire and Continental Resources chief executive Harold Hamm said in an interview with Bloomberg published on Thursday.

The EIA is “a very powerful market mover, and so it’s necessary they understand all of these things,” said Hamm who is scheduled to take part in an EIA webinar on crude oil production forecasts later on Thursday.

“EIA is on that world stage with us, as the swing producer in the world, and so it’s going to require better, more sophisticated methods of forecasting -- more so than ever before,” Hamm told Bloomberg.

According to the billionaire oil executive, the EIA needs to hear “meaningful feedback” from the shale producers and oilfield service providers about their production challenges.

“It’s pretty easy to get enamored” by technology, and “some people tend to go too far with it,” Hamm told Bloomberg.

Over the past few months, Hamm has been one of the most vocal critics of EIA’s overly optimistic forecasts for U.S. oil production. Related: Why Saudi Arabia Should Fear U.S. Oil Dominance

On September 14, Hamm told CNBC that he was concerned with EIA’s over-forecasting, and said that as the unbiased authority on supply in America, the Energy Information Administration needs “the same tools that we have in the industry.”

A week later, Hamm said that “EIA over-forecast what U.S. production was going to be this year by about 100 percent,” adding that the EIA had been revising its production estimates down, but by a much more moderate rate than the actual decline in production.

Earlier this year, when OPEC was just two months into the production cut deal, Hamm warned that if the U.S. oil industry embarked on another spending spree, it could “kill” the market. Production could go pretty high, but it should be in “a measured way, or else we kill the market,” Hamm said in early March.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Raul Vargaz on November 16 2017 said:
    Well the cat's out of the bag, IEA and EIA collude to ripoff the world oil market. Happy Hanukkah Saudi Arabia, Russia and OPEC, you've been played.
  • Bud on November 16 2017 said:
    EIA weekly numbers are a bold face guess. You cannot have the same numbers week after week and have statistical credibility. Clearly they have some formula that says X feet of new pipeline is added per week, weather permitting, and assume it is filled with new inventory. The only people benefitting are the politicians and day traders, whether that trader be a bank with a trillion dollar BS or a smaller specialist.
  • Terry Twitchell on November 16 2017 said:
    More self-serving comments by an oil billionaire trying to drive up prices with rhetoric. Get in line, dude. OPEC and the Russians are way ahead of you with that tact.
  • Barry Frie on November 16 2017 said:
    How about having concerns about the working man and do something about lowering the price of oil and gasoline. Move your money elsewhere. I'm sure you people are smart enough while we only put more money in our pocket by paying less for gas.
  • Mr. Do on November 20 2017 said:
    Come on now, $1.25 for a gallon of gas was a post housing/stock market crash gift. Stop driving to the fast food place every day, eat some vegetables - you will loose weight and get better gas mileage. If you are in a car club maybe you should join the chess club instead.

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