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Surprise Crude Build Threatens Oil Rally

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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Expert Commentary: A Record Setting Week In Energy

It was a record setting week in the energy complex with crude oil posting one of its biggest declines since the price collapse in 2014 and natural gas posting back-to-back double-digit percentage moves. U.S. crude oil also completed a record 12 consecutive lower closes. In the natural as market, a short-squeeze spiked the market higher, producing the biggest one-day rally in 14 years and the highest closing price since 2014. This was followed by the sharpest one-day decline since February 2003.

Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures have been moving higher since Tuesday’s plunge, but are still in a position to close lower for a sixth consecutive week. The price action suggests a support base is being formed. I haven’t seen any evidence of strong counter-trend buying so I’ll have to chalk up the three day move to light short-covering.

The price action suggests that traders should start preparing for heightened volatility. This means we’re going to enter a headline driven market, if we haven’t entered one already.

We know the market is oversupplied. This is because of rising production in the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia and weakening global demand. U.S. producers aren’t likely to lighten up. Russia likes the cash flow and says it is comfortable with $70 crude oil. The Saudi’s seem to be the most receptive to production cuts.

According to reports,…



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