One of the big investment banks is offering a "reality check" about Tesla's market share that one might not expect from a firm likely trying to win investment banking business from the company.
That's why this morning's Bank of America note - wherein the bank suggests that Tesla's U.S. EV market share could drop to just 19% by 2024 - caught our eye.
The bank says that a "slew" of new EV models hitting the market could force Tesla's U.S. market share to plunge from its current 69%, Bloomberg wrote in a Wednesday morning note.
“We think 2022 marks the start of commercialization for electric vehicles, with many start-up EV automakers launching/ramping new product and many incumbent automakers also beginning their product launch onslaught,” the bank said.
Tesla will have "lesser market share than traditional carmakers by 2024," the note says. GM and Ford are in position to be the biggest market share gainers as Tesla declines, the bank predicts.
In total, in the United States, the bank is predicting about 1 million EVs sold in 2022, 1.8 million sold in 2023 and 3 million sold in 2024.
Tesla market share as a % of total vehicles sold
We have noted in a series of articles that Tesla already faces robust EV competition in places like Asia. Should the same competitive landscape emerge in the U.S., Tesla will no longer be the only mainstream "hip" option for EVs and consumers may soon start judging vehicle choices based on the actual quality of their vehicles, instead of simply picking from the limited choices they have.
If that occurs, we wouldn't be surprised if Tesla - who has been roundly criticized for its poor build quality by major automobile publications - falls down the priority list a couple notches for potential buyers.
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