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Exxon’s Guyana Oil Drilling Plans Anger Venezuela

Exxon’s Guyana Oil Drilling Plans Anger Venezuela

ExxonMobil’s drilling plans offshore Guyana…

Vincent Lauerman

Vincent Lauerman

Vincent is president of Geopolitics Central, a Calgary-based energy consultancy. He has spent the majority of his three-decade career working as a global energy analyst.

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The Second Machine Age Could Crash Oil Prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), have consistently and seriously underestimated U.S. oil production, and hence non-OPEC supply, since the Shale Oil Revolution took off in earnest early this decade.

Forecasters at these major oil organizations simply do not understand that we are in a new age of rapid technological advancement and innovation. This new age has been pushing down the cost of U.S. light tight oil (LTO) faster and lower than expected, expanding ultimate recoverable resource and so-called sweet spots, and pushing U.S. oil production – both crude and NGLs – substantially higher at lower than anticipated prices.

The combination of weaker than projected global oil demand and stronger than expected LTO production – from the U.S. and elsewhere – could weigh heavily on crude oil prices by the middle of the next decade.

In contrast, the IEA and EIA are both predicting steady upward pressure on crude prices through 2040 based on projected market fundamentals. Both organizations see the price of a Brent-like crude averaging around US$110 per barrel at the end of the projection period in inflation adjusted terms – or almost a US$175 nominal price assuming…





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