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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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Texas Production Down, Gas Takes Biggest Hit

The preliminary Texas RRC Production Data is out this morning. There appears to be a considerable drop in Texas crude oil production in April. All Texas RRC data in the charts below is through April 2015 and all EIA data is through March 2015.

As always, the Texas RRC data is incomplete. The drooping lines will eventually, after the final data comes in, closer resemble the EIA data. Though I believe the EIA data is quite a bit too high at this point.

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It appears that, when the final data comes in that Texas will have took a huge hit in January, recovered somewhat in February and March, then took another hit this past April.

(Click to enlarge)

Dr. Dean Fantazzini, with his algorithm that calculates the final production numbers, also comes to the conclusion that Texas took a hit in April production. Dean has three results with the most probable in the middle.

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Texas Crude only, in April, when the final data comes in, should be slightly above January but still well below December. Related: Expect A Wave Of Consolidation In The Oil Industry

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Dean’s corrected data shows Texas crude only declining in January, recovering in February and March, then declining again in April.

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Condensate took a far greater hit in April than did crude only. This is likely because natural gas production in April took a bigger hit than did oil production.

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This is Dean’s take on what Texas Condensate will be when the final data comes in. December appears to be the peak… so far. Related: Global Oil Production Substantially Lower Than Believed

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There is no doubt that North Dakota, the USA’s second largest producer, is down since December. And I believe the data clearly shows that Texas, the USA’s largest crude oil producer by far, is down also. Then how is it possible that the EIA has US Production up so much since December?

In the chart above as well as the one below, the weekly production data are the averaged per month. The June weekly numbers are the average of the last two weeks reported data.

This is what the three different reporting departments say has happened to US C+C production since December 2014. I believe this will turn out to be the largest production error in the history of the agency.

(Click to enlarge)

It appears that Texas Natural Gas took a bigger hit than did oil. All natural gas data is in MCF. Related: The End Of The Beginning For Renewable Energy?

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This is Dean’s estimate of what the final Texas natural gas production will look like. The peak, so far, is in December, just like crude oil.

Texas gas well gas peaked way back in April of 2009. In April it was Texas gas well gas that took the biggest hit of all.

(Click to enlarge)

Texas associated gas did not take nearly the hit that gas well gas did. This is gas from oil wells. So it appears that even though oil production did take a hit in April, natural gas took an even bigger hit.

By Ron Patterson

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