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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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Oil Rallies As OPEC Production Falls

Oil

The below OPEC charts were taken from data in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through March 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

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There was another big decline in OPEC production in March, down 534,000 barrels per day.

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The decline was mostly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iraq.

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Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from quotas. Everyone except Saudi Arabia are near their quota. Saudi is over half a million barrels per day below their quota.

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Although Iraq was down  126,000 bpd in March they are still at their average for the last two and one-half years.

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I think Kuwait is at, or very near, peak production except for their share of the neutral zone. That is shared 50/50 with Saudi Arabia. Their share would be about half a million barrels per day. It is shut down because of a political disagreement between the two countries.

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Libyan production was up 196,000 in March. They will likely be down again in April as fighting there has escalated.

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Nigeria appears to be in slow decline. They are still producing well above their quota.

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Saudi Arabia is another story altogether. They are over half a million barrels per day below their quota.

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The UAE is producing slightly below their quota. The October, November, December spike in production was obviously a heroic attempt to increase their quota as they are still producing well above their average before that three month period.

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Venezuelan production was down 289,000 bpd in March. The blackouts there hit them hard. I would be afraid to even guess where they are going from here.

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By Peak Oil Barrel

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