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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty

OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all the OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2015. There were very little revisions in the December numbers this month.

OPEC12

Total OPEC production of crude only was down 53,000 barrels per day in January to 30,153,000 barrels per day of crude only.

Algeria

Algerian production has leveled out in the last year and a half but down slightly the last couple of months. January production slipped 13,000 bpd to 1,130,000 bpd.

Angola

Angola had a big increase in January, up 122,000 bpd to 1,777,000 bpd.

Ecuador

Last month Ecuador looked to be heading for a new high but slipped slightly in January, down 1,000 bpd to 553,000 bpd.

Iran

Not much ever happens in Iran these days. Iran January production was down 25,000 bpd to 2,754,000 bpd.

Iraq

Iraq had a big decline in January, down 279,000 bpd to 3,353,000 bpd.

Kuwait

Kuwait had a big increase in January, up 78,000 bpd to 2,777,000 bpd. Related: Essential Oil Production Statistics – February 2015

Libya

Libya’s problems continue to get worse again. Their production was down 132,000 to 343,000 bpd.

Nigeria

Things are about the same in Nigeria. Their production was up 44,000 to 1,940,000 bpd.

Qatar

Qatar’s production continues to slide. Their crude only production was down 7,000 bpd to 680,000 bpd.

SaudiArabia

Saudi Arabia increased production in January, up 93,000 bpd to 9,683,000 bpd.

UnitedArabEmirates

UAE made a new high in January, up 64,000 to 2,841,000 bpd.

Venezuela

Venezuela continues to tread water, going nowhere fast. Their crude only production was up 1,000 bpd in January to 2,231,000 bpd.

OPECCrudeProductionCharts Related: Why Peak Oil Is Finally Here

There continues to be about an 850,000 bpd difference between what OPEC’s secondary sources say OPEC produces and what the countries themselves say they produce. Most countries say they are producing a lot more than the secondary sources report, especially Iran, Venezuela and the UAE. Only Iraq says they are producing a lot less than the secondary sources report.

WorldOilSupplyChart

OPEC has world oil production peaking, so far, in October 2014.

Non-OPECSupplyChart

OPEC predicts non-OPEC total liquids supply to be up 850,000 barrels per day in 2015 and 890 ,000 barrels per day of that increase is to come from the US and Canada. The lion’s share of that, they say, 82,000 bpd, will come from the US. That is a downward revision of 420,000 barrels per day from last month’s projections.

RussiaChart

Almost everyone, including OPEC, thinks Russia has peaked. They see Russia dropping about 200,000 bpd from the 4th quarter 2014 to the 4th quarter 2015.

From Platts: Considering Russia’s crude oil production in 2015

The Russian Energy Ministry announced last week it expects crude output in the country to fall 0.6% in 2015. The IEA also said recently it is preparing significant negative revisions to its forecasts for Russian crude output, going so far as accusing some Russian industry officials of complacency over the country’s ability to sustain production in the current economic and political climate.

Russian crude production can be difficult to predict, however, and many analysts continue to forecast flat or even some output growth this year…

The key factor in Russia being able to maintain its output has been its ability to offset declining production rates at mature fields with new production at greenfield sites. From the middle of last year, analysts speculated that 2014 may mark the last year that Russian companies would be able to pull this off.

Regardless of what happens, things are getting interesting in Russia.

By Ron Patterson

Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/ 

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Leave a comment
  • Daniel on February 10 2015 said:
    Ron,

    you seem to have got some of your figures the wrong way around? See below.

    Also how reliable are the 'secondary sources'? If they were to be correct then actual production must be much less than being reported by countries. Why would NOC's over report when it would actually be in their interests to under report and make it appear that global production is much less, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand and hence a probable increase in oil prices.

    OPEC predicts non-OPEC total liquids supply to be up 850,000 (890,000??) barrels per day in 2015 and 890 ,000 (850,000???) barrels per day of that increase is to come from the US and Canada. The lion’s share of that, they say, 82,000 bpd (820,00bpd), will come from the US. That is a downward revision of 420,000 barrels per day from last month’s projections.

    non the less a good article summarizing where we are today with global production trends.

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