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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC Keeps Up Production In August, Takes Over Market Share

OPEC Keeps Up Production In August, Takes Over Market Share

 The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market report is out with OPEC production numbers for August 2015.

All charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point August 2015.

OPEC12

(Click Image To Enlarge)

Not much has happened since June, OPEC 12 production was up 12,000 bpd in August that is well within the margin of error.

OPEC12Chart

(Click Image To Enlarge)

All my charts are taken from what OPEC calls “secondary sources” OPEC nations, especially Iran and Venezuela, often lie about their production. But from the chart above you can see exactly who was up and who was down in August, and by how much.

SaudiArabia

(Click Image To Enlarge) Related: Why Saudi Arabia’s Pursuit Of Market Share Is Self-Defeating

Saudi Arabia is holding steady, producing 10,362,000 barrels per day in August. However Saudi Arabian production is up 700,000 bpd since February.

Iraq

(Click Image To Enlarge)

Iraq, like Saudi Arabia, has been holding steady since June. However Iraq has increased production by 756,000 barrels per day since February.

SaudiAndIraq

Saudi Arabia and Iraq have a combined production increase, since February, of 1,455,000 bpd.

OPECLessSaudiAndIraq

(Click Image To Enlarge) Related: Will We See OPEC’s Strategy Succeed Before Christmas?

Everyone else in OPEC has hardly moved since February. Some of the other 10 OPEC nations have increased a little, some declined a little but none except Saudi Arabia and Iraq have done anything dramatic.

Iran

(Click Image To Enlarge)

I had expected Iran to be up a lot in August but alas, nothing much happened in Iran in August.

WorldOilUpdate

(Click Image To Enlarge)

OPEC has world total liquids supply peaking, so far, in June and down over half a million barrels per day from July to August.

NonOPEC

(Click Image To Enlarge)

OPEC expects Non-OPEC total liquids to be up a mere 160,000 bpd next year with US and Canada increasing by 300,000 bpd. That means that they expect the rest of Non-OPEC to be down by 140,000 bpd. Related: OPEC Is Winning The Price War Says IEA

RegionalNonOPECSupply

(Click Image To Enlarge)

This chart gives a better idea of where they expect growth to come from next year, along with where the growth was in 2013 and 2014. This 2016 estimate of Non-OPEC production was revised down by 61,000 bpd from last month’s report. I expect further downward revisions in the coming months.

The page OPEC Charts has been updated with the August production data for all 12 OPEC nations.

By Ron Patterson 

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