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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC 310,000 Barrels Per Day Above Production Cut Goal

The new January OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with crude only production numbers for January 2017. All charts are in thousand barrels per day.

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OPEC crude oil production dropped to 32,139,000 bpd in January. November production was revised upward by 68,000 bpd while December production was revised downward by 56,000 bpd. So Peak OPEC production was in November 2016 instead of December as they had it last month.

Officially OPEC agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day beginning in January. So OPEC missed their mark by 310,000 barrels per day.

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OPEC’s December production represents an all time high for the cartel.

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Algerian production was down by 41,700 bpd. This was a lot more than was expected.

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Angola’s production was down 23,200 bpd in January.

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Ecuador’s production dropped 16,700 bpd in January.

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Gabon dropped 10,000 bpd in January and reached a new low at just below 200,000 bpd.

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Iran’s production actually increased 50,200 bpd in January. I guess they are thumbing their nose at the rest of OPEC. In January their crude oil production was 3,775,000 bpd, their highest point since November 2008, well before sanctions.

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Iraqi production was down 165,700 bpd in January. This was a shock. Few expected them to cut this much. Of course much of this decline could be just that, natural decline.

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Kuwaiti crude production declined by 141,200 bpd in January. Quite a drop for them.

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Libya’s production continues to increase. They were up 64,700 bpd in January. Libya, because of their political problems, is exempt from those OPEC cuts.

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Nigerian production was up 101,800 bpd in January. Nigeria, because of their problems with the rebels, are also exempt from OPEC cuts.

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Qatar’s crude oil production declined 22,500 bpd in January. Qatar has been in an almost steady decline since 2008.

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Saudi crude oil production declined by 496,200 bpd in January to 9,946,000 bod. This is their lowest point since February, 2015.

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UAE production was down by 159,300 bpd in January. The UAE had been making heroic attempts to increase production in the last 6 month in preparation for the expected cuts.

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Venezuelan production dropped by 30,500 bpd in January. They are now barley above two million bpd now. I doubt that any of this decline was intentional. Look for their decline to continue.

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OPEC says world oil supply was down by 1,290,000 bpd in January.

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Here is what OPEC expects Non-OPEC production to be in 2017.

By Ron Patterson

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  • robert on February 14 2017 said:
    Good article. It shows that OPEC is still producing a lot more oil than they did in 2015. They pushed production up in 2016 so that their cutbacks would look meaningful in 2017. Really their only saviours are the supertankers that can be floating warehouses that can keep the on land storage down. Thereby talking prices up. Be careful.

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