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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook For 2016

The EIA is out with the latest Short Term Energy Outlook. All charts below are in million barrels per day. The one table is in thousand barrels per day. The projected data is through December 2016.

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The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids dropping 620,000 bpd in September, up 280,000 bpd in November but bottoming out in January, February and March, then climbing until October of 2016.

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The EIA expects Non-OPEC average total liquids to increase by 140,000 bpd in 2016. The chart above shows the change they expect each country to make. Canada, by far, has the largest increase in production, up by 340,000 barrels per day. Without Canada’s input the EIA says, Non-OPEC total liquids production would be down by 200,000 bpd.

Here are the changes in Non-OPEC production the EIA expects each country to make 2015 to 2016 in thousand barrels per day. Countries not listed had zero expected change from 2015 to 2016. Related: LNG Bust Could Last For Years

(Click to enlarge)

The EIA says U.S. total liquids production dropped 180,000 bpd in September.

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Canada, the EIA says, was down 240,000 bpd in September and up again 270,000 bpd in October and will likely continue to climb at a steady pace through the end of 2016. The upward trend the EIA expects in Canadian production seems to match the same upward trend that Canada has experienced since 2011. It seems that the EIA expects the drop in the price of crude oil to have almost no effect whatsoever on Canadian total liquids production. Related: Decoding Saudi Arabia’s Strategy In Its Oil Price War

(Click to enlarge)

Indonesia has the second highest expected increase in total liquids production, up 70,000 bpd from 2015 to 2016.

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Brazil had the third largest expected increase in total liquids in 2016. The annual cycling in Brazil liquids production is due to ethanol production which peaks in June through October and is at the lowest point January through March.

Yemen has the fourth largest expected liquids production increase. The EIA says Yemen liquids will continue at 20,000 bpd through December but jump to 100,000 bpd in January 2016. Production is down in Yemen because of a war going on there not because of natural decline. Apparently the EIA expects peace to begin to break out in January but not to progress much from that point. Related: Lithium Market Set To Explode – All Eyes Are On Nevada

(Click to enlarge)

This is the latest weekly production numbers from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The data here is in thousand barrels per day.

Low prices will destroy production then low production will send prices soaring? Then? Somehow this just seems too much to predict but it is a likely scenario. Is it?

U.S. oil output on brink of “dramatic” decline, exec says

* World prices seen too low to support U.S. shale oil output
* Lack of bank financing seen for new shale developments
* Risk low production levels may cause price spike
* U.S. oil sector productivity improvements seen near limit (Recasts; adds U.S. production forecasts)

The chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed, saying U.S. oil producers would struggle to refinance while prices remained so low, leading to lower output in future.

“Producers are now looking for new cash to survive and they will probably struggle to get it,” Ben van Beurden said.

Longer term, there was a risk that low levels of global production could bring a spike in oil prices, he said.

By Ron Patterson

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