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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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EIA Data Still Diverging From Reality

The EIA’s, on June 30th, published its Petroleum Supply Monthly. I think their numbers are just way too high. I compared them with the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The chart below shows the Results.

USWeeklyCC

(Click Image To Enlarge)

I averaged the weekly numbers and converted them to monthly data. They were pretty close for the first three months of 2014 but then they begin to diverge. Of course they were much closer earlier but in the Petroleum Supply Monthly has, over several months, been revised upward. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report is never revised. Related: Is Iran A Worthy Gamble For The Oil Majors?

In April, the Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US C+C production 322,000 barrels per day above the weekly average of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

TwoMonthChange

(Click Image To Enlarge)

The Petroleum Supply Monthly shows US production increased 387,000 barrels per day in the two months January to March. That is an increase when oil rigs were being stacked by the dozens. They show Texas up 312,000 over those two months and New Mexico up 52,000 bpd. That means they think the Permian, which is mostly in Texas but partly in New Mexico, was really booming during those two months.

3MonthChange

(Click Image To Enlarge)

The EIA has crude production continuing to climb during April, up 396,000 bpd January to April. The Gulf of Mexico, which had been down slightly the previous three months, was shown up 104,000 in April, giving them a gain of 71,000 bpd over the three months.

But obviously Texas is where all the action is. Related: Top Shale Takeover Targets

Dr. Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, has worked out an algorithm, described here, where, based on the data supplied by the RRC, he is able to predict, with some accuracy, what the final data will show.

DrFVsEIAEstimates

(Click Image To Enlarge)

Dr. Fantazzini publishes three estimates, High, Low and Corrected or what I call “Most Likely” which is in between his high and low estimates. I am here using only his corrected data. As you can see up through September 2014, he and the EIA were extremely close. But then they began to diverge.

DifferencesBetweenDrFAndEIA

(Click Image To Enlarge)

The difference between the two estimates widens every month for seven months reaching almost 370,000 barrels per day in April. Related: Current Oil Price Slump Far From Over

PSMTexasNewMexico

(Click Image To Enlarge)

The Drilling Productivity Report has the Permian + Eagle Ford peaking in April.

GOMCC

(Click Image To Enlarge)

The EIA gets their Gulf of Mexico data from the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. The BSEE, like Texas, does not get their data on time. But after four months all the data is pretty much in. But here the April data is apparently only about half complete.

The EIA likely has the January, February and March GOM numbers estimated pretty close. But I think the 104,000 barrel per day increase they show in April is unlikely.

In Conclusion, I believe that the EIA’s crude oil production numbers since January are too high. And they get a little more out of kilter each month. However, the EIA revises the Petroleum Supply Monthly every month. So the numbers will be revised, little by little, every month, until they get them right.

By Ron Patterson

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