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Arthur Berman

Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and…

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Deciphering The Latest Rig Count Data

Deciphering The Latest Rig Count Data

The main take-away from this week’s rig count is that everything is on track for lower U.S. oil production by mid-year. The weekly changes vary but the overall trend since October is down and that is positive for achieving a better balance between supply and demand.

Please remember the following points and read my previous post “Oil Prices Don’t Change Because of Rig Count” if you haven’t already:

• Rig count is only one indicator of future production trends.
• Week-to-week changes are not critical but trends may become important.
• Horizontal rigs are more important than vertical rigs.
• Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian basin are the most important plays for tight oil production in the U.S.

This week, the overall rig count was down 75 compared with 43 rigs last week. The horizontal rig count was down 51 compared with 33 rigs last week.

The Eagle Ford Shale play lost 9 horizontal rigs this week, the Permian lost 15 and the Bakken lost 3 rigs.

RigCountChangeTable

Rig Count Change Table. Source: Baker-Hughes, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(Click to enlarge)

Related: Oil Price Crash A Blessing In Disguise For US Shale

The Bakken horizontal rig count is down 40% from its maximum in 2014. The Permian basin horizontal rig count is down 33% and the Eagle Ford is down 30%.

RigCountMostChanged

Rig Count Most-Changed Table. Source: Baker Hughes and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

(Click to enlarge) Related: Congress Facing Huge Pressure To Lift Oil Export Ban

Horizontal rigs for tight oil plays were down 36 rigs this week, and 353 rigs (60%) compared with the maximum in 2014.

RigCountMostChanged2

Rig Count Most-Changed Table. Source: Baker Hughes and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
(Click to enlarge)

By Art Berman for Oilprice.com

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  • Nick Horob on March 12 2015 said:
    Thanks for the stats but it appears your math is wrong on the % decline in rig count.
  • Glen on March 24 2015 said:
    this did not show, increase in number of wells drilled per rig year over? Rigs are drilling more wells per month. Production with multi well pads is a game changer .

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