Geopolitics

• BRAZIL: Round 11 in Rio, Hot and Getting Hotter

  Bottom Line: Rio’s 11th round of bidding for new concessions went down in an atmosphere of heavy competition, with Brazilian offshore acreage fast becoming some of the hottest oil and gas blocks out there thanks to some impressive pre-salt finds and developments.   Analysis: The National Petroleum Agency hosted the 11th round of oil concession bids in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on 14 and 15 May. There was some very stiff competition for blocks in the Foz do Amazonas basin off the coast of Amapá state in northeastern Brazil. One deep-water concession here (FZA-M-57) garnered the single-highest bid of the…

• KURDISTAN: Understanding the Power Brokers

  Bottom Line: Kurdistan is a good place to be right now for E&P companies, but navigating the playing field of power brokers and gatekeepers is a challenging necessity if you want to break into this market—and it’s changing by the day. Analysis: ISA Intel is deep inside Kurdistan and our intelligence paints an interesting picture of the power broker/gatekeeper scene, and it’s a dynamic one. What is most important to understand in Kurdistan is that contrary to popular media stories, the two key political parties—the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—do not necessarily share an…

• Get Ready for More Energy Unrest in Bulgaria

  Protests over high energy prices brought down the Bulgarian government in February, and elections last week have brought back essentially the same government so we can expect continued protests and instability here. In February, the force of tens of thousands of protesters clashing with police over rising power bills and corruption led to the resignation of the government led by Prime Minister Boiko Borisov as the only avenue for quelling the violence. On 12 May, new parliamentary elections were held, ushering into office Borisov’s own center-right GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) party, but with only 30.5% of the…

• Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Petro-Political ‘Peace’ for Syria

  We’ve got an extremely muddled peace process going on for Syria right now, and petro-politics defines agendas and actions. A US-Russian “peace” conference will be held later this month, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia have tabled a controversial resolution at the UN. The Qatar-Saudi resolution accuses the Syrian regime of using chemical weapons, which is not true even according to a UN investigating committee, which demonstrates that chemical weapons were more likely used by certain rebel forces. The resolution clearly lays the foundation for handing over Syria’s UN seat to Western-GCC-supported Syrian opposition figures (and basically, Sunni radicals under the…

• Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Sites Would be Sheer Madness

  A timely article by Wade Stone for Global Research examines what would happen to the oil producing nations of the Gulf in the event that Israel would target Iran's nuclear reactors and facilities; the reply and the scenario given is nothing short of a nightmare. Most, if not all, the cities in the region of the Arabian Gulf – Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, Riyadh and others – would become uninhabitable for decades to come.The article provides a good study of the ensuing catastrophe that would result. Though frightening as it is, the article looks at the issue mostly from…

• Nigeria may be Next OPEC Member to Fall

  The wealthiest man in Africa said he's secured billions of dollars in loans to help kick start the refinery business in Nigeria. OPEC-member Nigeria is forced to import most of its petroleum products because of aging infrastructure. Crude oil production in Nigeria has suffered in recent years because of militant campaigns and sabotage in the Niger Delta region. Last month, the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said it was launching a campaign to save Christianity in Nigeria. With militant group Boko Haram seeking to establish an Islamic state in a country divided along religious lines, poorly…

• GHANA-COTE D’IVOIRE: New Find, Old Maritime Dispute

  Bottom Line: A new discovery by France’s Total SA (TOT) just inside territorial waters of Cote d’Ivoire will either exacerbate or speed up a resolution for a maritime boundary dispute between Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.Analysis: On 25 April, Total discovered oil in the Ivoire-1X exploration well, encountering 28 meters of net oil pay in 100 meters of Cretaceous reservoirs. The find is an extension of Total’s into the Tano Basin, in Ghana’s Jubilee fields. Effectively, now we know that Total’s Block CI-100 in Cote d’Ivoire has reserves that run into the Ghana fields. This was the first well drilling in…

• KENYA: Oil Production 6-7 Years Away

  Bottom Line: Close to proving commercial viability of its major finds since last year, a new report by the IMF suggests that Kenya will start producing in 6-7 years. Analysis: The IMF has already classified Kenya’s Turkana finds as “commercial”, noting the May 2012 discoveries by Tullow Oil in Kenya’s Tertiary Rift. This is a bit of a misnomer, but it’s close. In April, Tullow said it had achieved close to commercial quantities of oil in its Twiga South-1 well. In Tullow’s Ngamia-1 well in Block 10BB, the company has now completed the first of six drill stem tests, but…

• BRAZIL: Another Discovery for Karoon

  Bottom Line: Karoon Gas Australia Ltd. (KAR) was already ripe for takeover last month, and a secondary discovery in Brazil last week adds some significantly unexpected value. Analysis: Last week, Karoon found oil at its Bilby-1 well in Brazil’s prolific Santos Basin. Earlier this year, it made another discovery at its Kangaroo-1 well. On the second discovery, the company’s stocks shot up 28% on the Sydney stock exchange, hitting their highest point in four years. In late 2010, Karoon was toying with a public offering for its South American assets, but then had a change of heart and stepped up…

• The Road to Damascus is Paved With Ill-Intent

  The Biblical conversion of Paul to Christianity “on the road to Damascus” implied a turning point for the onetime antagonist of Christ. But now the road to Damascus is an unmarked and uncertain path, full of treachery and hidden motives ...  Events unfolding in the Levant — particularly with regard to the externally-sponsored conflict underway within Syria — during April and May 2013 were being played out like a flickering, imprecise lantern show in the international media, distorting and mis-directing major states’ policies toward the region.   The actual events on the ground were on one planet; those same events portrayed…