ミドルコリドーはEUとアジアの貿易における最良の選択肢ですか？

• 中央回廊（ミドルコリドー）は中国とヨーロッパを結ぶ多様な輸送回廊です。
• ヨーロッパの限られた見通しに対し、アジアは今日の約45％から2030年までに約58％に上昇する世界のGDPシェアを増やしていくでしょう。
• 共和国はヨーロッパとの貿易を増やすために中央回廊を利用する予定ですが、残念ながら、南方の隣国は米国、欧州連合、国連の制裁対象となっています。

The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, is a multimodal transport corridor that connects China to Europe. Spanning over 4,700 km and being 2,000 km shorter than Russia's Northern Corridor, as reported by the Caspian Policy Center, it is the shortest and most sustainable transport corridor between Europe and Western China. The Corridor has gained renewed attention due to the Russia-NATO war in Ukraine, offering Europe an alternative route for trade with China and Central Asia, bypassing Russia and the Northern Corridor, as well as the route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which faces threats from Houthi attacks on Israel-bound shipments.According to the World Bank, "The Middle Corridor links China and Kazakhstan by rail through Dostyk or Khorgos/Altynkol, crosses Kazakhstan by rail to the Aktau Port, crosses the Caspian Sea to the Port of Baku/Alyat, traverses Azerbaijan and Georgia by rail, then continues by rail to Europe through Türkiye or across the Black Sea."Among the five Central Asian states, Kazakhstan plays a significant role in the Corridor by housing rail lines. The upcoming China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway project, scheduled to commence construction in October 2024, will further expand the East-West corridor. However, financing for the project remains uncertain despite the World Bank's projection of tripling freight volumes and halving travel time by 2030. The project faces challenges in securing financing as it is primarily a regional corridor, with transcontinental trade making up a small portion of the traffic.The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has identified a list of priority infrastructure investments in the Central Asian republics. While the Bank acknowledges soft connectivity challenges as a significant hurdle to improved transport links, it emphasizes the eventual necessity of funding the tangible infrastructure developments. Edward Chow from the Center for Strategic and International Studies highlights the crucial role of China in the Middle Corridor, emphasizing the need for a substantial flow of goods to sustain the infrastructure projects. He suggests that the project, initially aimed at reducing Russian influence, may inadvertently shift the focus to increased Chinese involvement in the region.Europe's shift away from Russian natural gas and fertilizer, coupled with a decline in industrial capacity, notably in sectors like chemicals and heavy industry, is indicative of the broader economic transformations taking place on the continent. Additionally, Europe is grappling with a demographic challenge, with significantly fewer children being born compared to six decades ago, leading to projections of a dwindling workforce and consumer base in the future.In contrast to Europe, Asia is poised for significant economic growth, with its share of global GDP projected to rise from around 45% to 58% by 2030. Furthermore, Forbes reports that Asia is expected to drive approximately 60% of global economic growth in 2024.While Asia's growth is notable, Africa is forecasted to be the second-fastest-growing region after Asia, with ten African countries expected to be among the world's top 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024, sustaining a positive growth trend observed over the past two decades. Africa's growing population is set to have a profound impact on global demographics this century, underscoring the continent's economic significance despite lower GDP per capita compared to Europe.Cross-border trade patterns, as highlighted by Quartz, show that countries often engage in substantial trade with neighboring nations, a trend mirrored in Central Asia where Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan form vital trade partners. These relationships are complex, influenced by historical and geopolitical factors that include Washington's past interactions with these countries.On a regional scale, Turkmenistan's aspiration to become a key transit hub in Central Asia reflects broader efforts to enhance connectivity and facilitate trade routes linking various countries, including Russia, Iran, and India. Similarly, Uzbekistan's diplomatic engagements with the Taliban and Iran, coupled with infrastructure projects like the trans-Afghan railway, underscore the nation's strategic initiatives aimed at fostering regional integration and economic development.Kazakhstan, hosting the Middle Corridor, showcases a nuanced foreign policy approach that aligns with China's Belt and Road Initiative. Kazakhstan's plans to strengthen ties with Iran and expand trade relations underscore its commitment to enhancing regional connectivity and fostering economic growth.Tajikistan's engagement with Iran underscores a proactive approach to bolstering regional partnerships, with a focus on trade relations with key countries like Kazakhstan, China, and Russia. The nation's strategic positioning vis-à-vis Afghanistan, coupled with ongoing efforts to establish crucial transport links, reflects a broader strategy of leveraging regional cooperation for mutual economic benefits.Drawing on Washington's sanctions on Iran and Afghanistan, Central Asian republics navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, focusing on bolstering regional trade ties and fostering economic growth. The completion of the Middle Corridor presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring a delicate balance between regional connectivity and economic considerations to ensure sustained growth and stability in the region.By James Durso