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U.S. Shale Production Set To Drop Next Month

Oil production from the seven largest shale formations in the United States is set to decline 121,000 barrels next month, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

The biggest production decrease next month is expected to come from the Eagle Ford, which the EIA expects will fall from 1.048 million bpd to 1.014 million bpd.

The second-largest drop is expected to take place in the Niobrara. All in all, the EIA expects oil production will drop in November to 7.692 million bpd, from 7.813 million bpd in October.

Next month, the EIA expects drops to oil production in all seven formations in the United States.

The EIA also expects gas production to fall in all seven regions as well, from 82,402 million cubic feet per day to 81,785 mcf/d, with the largest loss coming from the Appalachia region.

Total U.S. oil production has held relatively steady over the course of the last couple of months. At the beginning of August, oil production in the United States was estimated at 10.7 million bpd. As of the week ending October 2, total production had risen to 11 million bpd.

Despite the expectation for U.S. shale production to dip in November, the EIA is expecting new-well production per rig to increase in all of the seven major shale plays, except for in the Anadarko and Haynesville regions.

In the Permian basin, the EIA is estimating that new-well oil production per rig will increase from 1,199 barrels per day to 1,283 barrels per day. The Eagle Ford saw the next largest gain in new-well production per rig.

The EIA also reported decreases to the number of Drilled but Uncompleted wells in six of the seven major regions.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on October 14 2020 said:
    According to my calculations, the COVID-19 pandemic which triggered a collapse of both global oil demand and prices caused US oil production (overwhelmingly shale oil) to decline to an estimated 6.63 million barrels a day (mbd) so far this year comprised of 2.19 mbd of shale oil and 4.44 mbd of conventional oil.

    However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has grudgingly so far admitted to a loss of only 3 mbd.

    But with today’s announcement that US oil production will decline further by 121,000 barrels a day (b/d) next month, the EIA is trying to announce the loss of production by drips and drops so as to hide the bigger loss of 6.37 mbd I have calculated.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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