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Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) has just released new forecasts for its ‘New Lens Scenarios’ program, which aims to predict how current business decision and policies may unfold over time and affect the markets in the future.
Peter Voser, the CEO of Shell, explained that the scenarios “highlight the need for business and government to find ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy and improve energy efficiency.”
The scenarios take two different approaches: one considers the world with a high level of government involvement, and the other looks at the markets when they are given more freedom to develop naturally.
With high government involvement in dictating energy and policies, Shell believes that natural gas will flourish to become the number one energy source in the world over the next couple of decades, overtaking coal and helping to reduce carbon emissions.
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It also predicts that hydrogen and electric power cars would become the common methods of transportation and as a result oil prices will drop. This in turn will mean that high-cost unconventional fossil fuels would remain in the ground as it would be economically unfeasible to extract them.
The other scenario exists when the government has taken little interest in the markets and has instead allowed the economy to progress naturally. Fossil fuel demand, especially for coal, would grow around the world. High oil demand would lead to higher prices, which sustain drilling for unconventional reserves in harsh, expensive environments. High energy prices in general will lead to more investment in research of alternative sources of energy, which will eventually cause solar power to become the dominant source of energy on the planet in about 50 years time.
In neither scenario do we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to limit temperature rise to two degrees Celsius.
By. Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com
Charles is a writer for Oilprice.com
They can't even explain why fossil fuels are called fossil fuels beyond unsubstantiated conjecture.
Can we use technology growth to overcome the environmental pollutants from burning coal and oil ? Sure would be we can.
Solar panels degrade too fast to be an economically and environmentally acceptable solution. Imagine China burning coal in low tech or no tech generation plants just so they can build cheap solar cells. Where is the advantage ?
(2) If geothermal can save half or more of the cost of our heating and cooling, why are not mandating it for all new buildings and when old equipment is replaced? We could start with new commercial building and homes over are certain price. Image the heating oil, gas and electricity we could save.
(3) Why are we buying solar panels from China while they add a new dirty coal power plant every month or so? A tariff on stuff from China needs to be tied to their environmental and child labor record.