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Report: EU Sanctions On Crude, Products Could Cost Russia $300 Million Per Day

Once new European Union restrictions on Russian oil products come into force on February 5, Russia could face losses of around $300 million per day, a new report from a Finnish research center predicts. 

The report, by the independent Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) noted on Wednesday that the existing EU ban on crude oil imports from Russia, combined with the oil price cap, are costing the Kremlin’s coffers around $172 million per day. 

CREA notes that Russia’s fossil fuel export earnings dropped by 17% in December, representing its lowest level since it invaded Ukraine in the Spring of last year. 

“The fall in shipment volumes and prices for Russian oil has cut the country?s export revenues by EUR 180 million per day. Russia managed to claw back EUR 20 million per day by increasing exports of refined oil products to the EU and to the rest of the world, resulting in a net daily loss of EUR 160 million,” according to the report. 

Further, the report notes that this not only caused a 12% reduction in Russia’s crude oil exports, but also a 23% drop in its selling prices for an overall drop of 32% in crude oil revenues in December. 

Still, CREA states, Russia is “still making an estimated EUR 640 mn per day from exporting fossil fuels, down from a high of EUR 1000 mn in March to May 2022”. 

“The EU?s ban on refined oil imports, the extension of the price cap to refined oil and reductions in pipeline oil imports to Poland will slash this by an estimated EUR 120 mn per day by February 5”.

The European Union’s ban on the purchase, import or maritime transport of Russian crude oil that went into effect on December 5 will be expanded to include other refined petroleum products starting on February 5. Additionally, under G7 price cap measures, Russian oil is limited to a selling price of $60 per barrel.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on January 11 2023 said:
    The claim by the Finnish Research Centre (CREA) that Russia could lose an estimated $300 million a day as a result of the EU ban on Russian imports of crude oil and petroleum products combined with the oil cap is unsubstantiated.

    The claim was denied by both Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Preskov and Russian first Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying that no one has seen yet cases of a price cap on Russian crude oil and that the cap hasn’t caused any fall in Russian oil production.

    The proof that such claims are deliberate Western disinformation is provided by China alone buying $100 bn worth of Russian energy products (oil, gas, LNG and coal) in 2022 compared with $108 bn of Russian gas and oil supplies bought by the EU in 2021.

    Once India, other Asian countries and Asian oil traders are included, then the entire 8.0 million barrels a day (mbd) of Russian exports of crude oil and petroleum products will be hardly enough to satisfy them.

    Furthermore, Russian petroleum products will anyway be returning to the EU in the form of Chinese and Indian petroleum products refined from bought Russian crude.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert

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