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The ten OPEC producers in the OPEC+ pact pumped 24.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, OPEC data showed on Tuesday, with production falling 1 million bpd short of the target levels.
All 13 OPEC members produced 28.716 million bpd in June, up by 234,000 bpd from May, according to secondary sources used by OPEC to track production in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
The 10 producers in the OPEC+ pact, however, produced 24.8 million bpd, which was 1 million bpd below OPEC’s own target of 25.864 million bpd for the ten members for June.
Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are exempted from the production pact.
Libya saw the biggest decline in output in June, as its production fell to below 1 million bpd in each of the months in the second quarter due to continued unrest, protests, and port blockades.
Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia naturally raised its crude oil production by the most in June compared to May. Yet, per OPEC’s secondary sources, even the Saudis were lagging behind their quota for June. Saudi Arabia’s oil production rose by 159,000 bpd to 10.585 million bpd, OPEC said.
To compare, the Saudi target was 10.663 million bpd, so the Kingdom was 78,000 bpd below its quota last month using secondary source figures. But Saudi Arabia self-reported to OPEC that its production figures were indeed in line with its target—10.646 million bpd.
The UAE, the only other OPEC producer apart from Saudi Arabia believed to have spare capacity to boost production—slightly exceeded its target as it produced 3.083 million bpd, versus a 3.075 million bpd quota.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, was 75,000 bpd below its target, according to OPEC’s secondary sources.
The biggest laggard for several months has been Nigeria. Its oil production averaged 1.238 million bpd in June, while its quota was 1.772 million bpd.
This month and next, the targets for the OPEC-10 are even higher as OPEC+ decided to accelerate the rollback of the cuts and have those completely unwound by the end of August. Saudi Arabia has a 10.833 million bpd target for July, and 11 million bpd for August.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.
And while circumstantial evidence overwhelming indicates that OPEC+ has no spare capacity whatsoever, the world refuses to believe this out of self-preservation. It is deluding itself because it doesn't want to confront the fact that it is sitting on a ticking bomb.
But the real hydrogen bomb which will hit the global oil market is when it becomes clear that Saudi proven reserves which gave the Kingdom its strategic, geopolitical and economic influence in both the global oil market and the global economy are estimated as of today at 41.4 billion barrels (bb) and not the 264 bb that Saudi Arabia has been claiming for the last twenty years.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London