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Kazakhstan’s oil output forecast for 2017 jumped up to 81 million tons on Thursday after the Economy Ministry revised its yearly forecast based on 2016 outcomes.
The ministry’s earlier statistics predicted 79.5 million tons of production for the current year. In 2016, Kazakh oil and gas output reached 78.04 million tons. Still, the forecast increased due to the start of production at the Kashagan oil field in the fall of 2016, minister Timur Suleimenov, said. He added that he expects the oil industry to be the country’s main engine of growth over the next year, with the manufacturing and transportation sectors at a close second and third.
Kashagan, the biggest oil discovery in Kazakhstan in about four decades, holds an estimated 38 billion barrels of crude and a trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Of the oil reserves, 10 billion barrels are recoverable.
Kazakhstan is the largest oil producer in Central Asia and ranks 18th in the world, with annual production of 1.72 million barrels per day as of two years ago, but according to OPEC, production declined in 2015 to 1.6 million bpd.
Kazakhstan is not a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), but it has committed to cut output as one of the eleven non-OPEC countries participating in the global market rebalancing act. The former Soviet Republic does not come close to eclipsing Russian production, but if output at Kashagan rises as OPEC expects, the effects of the supply output reduction strategy will be dampened.
Related: Did Oil Inventories Just Peak?
Since the agreement went into action in January, the 11 non-OPEC contributors have achieved a 60 percent compliance rate, in comparison to the 90 percent rate experienced by members of the bloc.
By Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com
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Zainab Calcuttawala is an American journalist based in Morocco. She completed her undergraduate coursework at the University of Texas at Austin (Hook’em) and reports on…