Australian Commodity Exports Set To Fall From Record Highs

Australian commodity exports have surged in the past financial year driven by the rise in energy prices but are set to slump as prices retreat, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources has reported.

Energy and other resource exports in financial 2022/23 rose by 9%, the data showed, reaching a record-high value of some $300 billion, or A$460 billion.

However, they are set to decline by 15% in the next financial year to about $260 billion, or A$390 billion, falling further in the year after, to about $290 billion, or A$344 billion.

Australian LNG exports hit a record in 2022, reaching 81.4 million tons, which was 0.5% higher than the previous year’s exports. Most of the exports went to Japan, and China took second place, according to data from EnergyQuest released earlier this year.

In the current financial year, LNG exports are set to decline by a sizeable 27% in terms of value as international prices have fallen. Coal exports are also expected to decline, by some 40%.

Interestingly, exports of critical metals and minerals for the energy transition are seen remaining largely unchanged in the current fiscal year, at around $27 billion, or $40 billion, which was the level reached in fiscal 2022/23. This was twice the critical metal export level of 2021/22, the ministry said.

In energy specifically, the resources ministry forecast that global prices are set to remain elevated despite the recent decline. It attributed the forecast to constraints on Russian energy exports due to sanctions.

“Transport and infrastructure constraints remain a huge obstacle to the full diversion of Russian energy exports to nations with no sanctions,” the report said, adding that “The net result is a fall in world energy supply, as some Russian output is stranded.”

Unless global energy demand declined substantially, the report went on to add, prices will remain higher than before 2022.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

• U.S. Oil And Gas Rig Counts Decline For Second Consecutive Month
• Global Oil Reserves Could Increase Global Temperatures By 0.2°C
• Putin’s Plummeting Political Clout Is A Disaster For Xi