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Gold has started to trade within a range formed by swing lows and highs. A break above either range will clear up the overall direction. Without a “big picture” view, the overall direction remains unclear.
According to a recent article, at least three gold analysts have a more bearish opinion of gold for the longer term. The analysts include James Steel, Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC Securities, and Suki Cooper, Executive Director of Precious Metals Research Standard Chartered. There’s also Rhona O’Connell, head of Europe and Asian market analysis at StoneX Financial Ltd. Even with an uncertain technical analysis, the group has pointed to a few factors most likely to stop gold’s bull run. The first being a strong dollar. The second is the Fed’s recent belt-tightening.
That said, gold tends to stay strong in both deflationary and stagflationary markets. Rising interest rates signify deflationary actions designed to put the brakes on price increases. However, many remain concerned that the US economy could tip into stagflation. This is a condition typified by slowed economic growth, rising prices, and higher unemployment. Were this to happen, precious metals prices will fluctuate greatly.
Silver, by way of comparison, shares the same outlook as gold. However, the price of silver looks weaker with each prior high it takes out. As sell orders are filled, buyer strength gets depleted. Still, silver has room to rise in the short term before it reaches the major supply zone seen on HTFs. HTFs, in this case, stands for “high time frame.” You can see a clear example by looking at the chart on a daily, weekly, and monthly scale.
Meanwhile, platinum and palladium prices are making their own moves.
In the case of platinum, prices have begun to shift upwards in shorter time frames. It’s as if they’re targeting newly-introduced supply zones. The introduction of supply basically resulted in newly-formed bearish “order blocks.” Designed to create inefficiency in price or, this can contribute to stronger moves. Prices begin to correct on a small scale as each weak high gets taken out in anticipation of a “mini-rally” into bearish ranges. That said, from a technical perspective, platinum has a similar outlook to gold and silver.
Palladium prices appear weaker overall. Certainly weaker than platinum. The metal’s failure to form any swing highs has caused bias to the downside. Weak lows need sweeping for the trend to resume. In the meantime, short-term rallies will serve as entries for short-sellers as prices continue to form lower highs. Industrial buyers will of course implement a different strategy.
By AG Metal Miner
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