Many are those within the governments in Washington, London, Brussels, Paris and other major capitals cities, who are burning the midnight oil trying to think ahead as to what may likely happen in Egypt and Syria. Battle lines are being drawn between the secularists and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and between the Jihadists and Hezbollah in Syria.
The complexity of the situation has made it very difficult to predict what may transpire in the weeks and months ahead, in those two key Arab countries.
Though what appears to be a near certitude is that the two groups representing a real threat to the West and the pro-democracy movements – the jihadis and Hezbollah -- are set to clash.
Egypt and Syria are both vital countries in the region.
Until recently many amongst those who follow Middle East politics closely, including this analyst, were under the impression that what was happening in the Middle East was haphazard. All that was happening was the result of knee-jerk politics; meaning that the actors in the conflicts(s) are reacting to events as they unfold, rather than to plan ahead and have a game plan for all eventualities?
But what if these events were not haphazard, what if they were not random happenings?
What if there was a set of carefully planned and delivered packets of plots of how to overthrow authoritarian regimes, and how to bring about your two most dangerous enemies (the jihadist and Hezbollah) face to face where they would clash between themselves and kill two birds with one stone, or in this case kill to radical Islamists with one stone.
If you dig deep enough into the roots of the Arab Spring you would be surprised by the number of connecting dots that tie the United States to the Arab Spring countries’ revolutionary movements. More precisely the connections between a very, very small and very elite group of US State Department specialists whose lines were crossed between the Pentagon, the State Dept. and former and/or current employees of Google.
What if indeed there was some great plot that was hatched to bring about the great changes that took place and now to push the two Islamist groups to clash with each other?
It remains highly improbable though not inconceivable that the US would resort to such underhanded tactics.
It is not unusual for people in the Middle East to blame all and everything that transpires in their region on the United States and its allies. More particularly to place the blame squarely on the Western intelligence services, mainly on the CIA.
It remains highly unlikely though not improbable that there was some Machiavellian planning involved that brought these two parties to fight out their differences on the Syrian battlefield.
But in order for something of that magnitude to work it would require Machiavellian thinking.
In a democratic and open society there are two setbacks right off the cuff:
1. The lack of Machiavellian thinking
2. Someone will talk and blow the whistle.
By Claude Salhani
Claude Salhani is a political analyst, journalist and author. He is editor of arabspringnow.com. He tweets @claudesalhani.
I think this is at a large scale a result of natural forces which are set loose by states nearing a breaking point as they try to adapt to rapidly changing conditions while using command political and economic structures. The EU and the US will probably be at least partially destabilized also even if they keep fairly well clear of the fighting. Maybe no one will come out of this the way they went in.