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Global Intelligence Report

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Gulf Cooperation Council Intervenes in Bahrain, in Unprecedented Move

It appears the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has taken the unprecedented step of intervening militarily in the affairs of another member state to crush the democratisation movement there, which is led predominantly by Shia Muslims.

The units involved are from the GCC's Peninsula Shield force, which was established to combat foreign military aggression, not to police internal ructions in member states.

In effect, the al-Saud are moving to prop up Bahrain's al-Khalifa (also Sunni and hailing from the  Arabian Peninsula) in a bid to prevent the Baharna (Shia) revolt crossing the causeway into Saudi - where sporadic demonstrations are already taking place in predominantly Shia, oil-rich Eastern Province.

This, and calls for martial law from Bahraini Sunni MPs, constitute a serious escalation and threaten a second Shia uprising in Bahrain in which the protest movement is transformed into an anti-occupation struggle. In fact, this is likely the intended effect as there was every indication that the NVDA of the protestors was building tremendous pressure on the government.

Sporadic sectarian clashes have broken out in recent days and weeks between Shia and Sunni Bahrainis and Shia and foreign Sunni residents - accused by Baharna of being part of a sectarian cleansing effort by the al-Khalifa wherein foreign Sunni are naturalised.

This intervention would not have been possible without US support and is made under the cover of the Japanese and Libyan crises. It appears to speak to Washington's acceptance of al-Khalifa/al-Saud opportunistic arguments that Iran is playing a role in the social unrest, of which there is no evidence.


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  • Anonymous on March 15 2011 said:
    Given that something like 80% of Bahrainis are Shiites, wherever this goes it will not be good for the present gulf set up or the West. There is only so much you can do with internasl repression, if you are repressing 80% of the population. You can't put them all in prison. If the situation remaims volatile it will be seen how secure the Sunni govt feels with the GCC military behind it. If it goes beyond non-violence, then we are in uncharted waters, given the strategic value of Bahrain to the US navy. If you want a really good realistic account of the politics of this area, I'd recommend Robert Baer 'Sleeping with the Devil'. He was the best operative they ever had out there, knew Arabic and Farsi well, and had a feel for the place - which is why they kicked him out; he was too 'politically incorrect' and the Saudis didn't like what he knew...

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