• 6 hours Oil Pares Gains After API Reports Surprise Crude Inventory Build
  • 6 hours Elon Musk Won’t Get Paid Unless Tesla Does “Extraordinarily Well”
  • 7 hours U.S. Regulators Keep Keystone Capacity Capped At 80 Percent
  • 7 hours Trump Signs Off On 30 Percent Tariff On Imported Solar Equipment
  • 9 hours Russian Funds May Invest In Aramco’s IPO To Boost Oil Ties
  • 10 hours IMF Raises Saudi Arabia Growth Outlook On Higher Oil Prices
  • 11 hours China Is World’s Number-2 In LNG Imports
  • 23 hours EIA Weekly Inventory Data Due Wednesday, Despite Govt. Shutdown
  • 1 day Oklahoma Rig Explodes, Leaving Five Missing
  • 1 day Lloyd’s Sees No Room For Coal In New Investment Strategy
  • 1 day Gunmen Kidnap Nigerian Oil Workers In Oil-Rich Delta Area
  • 1 day Libya’s NOC Restarts Oil Fields
  • 1 day US Orion To Develop Gas Field In Iraq
  • 4 days U.S. On Track To Unseat Saudi Arabia As No.2 Oil Producer In the World
  • 4 days Senior Interior Dept. Official Says Florida Still On Trump’s Draft Drilling Plan
  • 4 days Schlumberger Optimistic In 2018 For Oilfield Services Businesses
  • 4 days Only 1/3 Of Oil Patch Jobs To Return To Canada After Downturn Ends
  • 4 days Statoil, YPF Finalize Joint Vaca Muerta Development Deal
  • 4 days TransCanada Boasts Long-Term Commitments For Keystone XL
  • 4 days Nigeria Files Suit Against JP Morgan Over Oil Field Sale
  • 5 days Chinese Oil Ships Found Violating UN Sanctions On North Korea
  • 5 days Oil Slick From Iranian Tanker Explosion Is Now The Size Of Paris
  • 5 days Nigeria Approves Petroleum Industry Bill After 17 Long Years
  • 5 days Venezuelan Output Drops To 28-Year Low In 2017
  • 5 days OPEC Revises Up Non-OPEC Production Estimates For 2018
  • 5 days Iraq Ready To Sign Deal With BP For Kirkuk Fields
  • 5 days Kinder Morgan Delays Trans Mountain Launch Again
  • 6 days Shell Inks Another Solar Deal
  • 6 days API Reports Seventh Large Crude Draw In Seven Weeks
  • 6 days Maduro’s Advisors Recommend Selling Petro At Steep 60% Discount
  • 6 days EIA: Shale Oil Output To Rise By 1.8 Million Bpd Through Q1 2019
  • 6 days IEA: Don’t Expect Much Oil From Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Before 2030
  • 6 days Minister Says Norway Must Prepare For Arctic Oil Race With Russia
  • 6 days Eight Years Late—UK Hinkley Point C To Be In Service By 2025
  • 6 days Sunk Iranian Oil Tanker Leave Behind Two Slicks
  • 6 days Saudi Arabia Shuns UBS, BofA As Aramco IPO Coordinators
  • 7 days WCS-WTI Spread Narrows As Exports-By-Rail Pick Up
  • 7 days Norway Grants Record 75 New Offshore Exploration Leases
  • 7 days China’s Growing Appetite For Renewables
  • 7 days Chevron To Resume Drilling In Kurdistan
Alt Text

The New Natural Resources Fueling The Green Revolution

The renewable energy revolution is…

Alt Text

2018: A Breakout Year For Clean Energy

2018 is poised to be…

Alt Text

Luxury Automakers Pivot To EVs

As the race for electric…

MINING.com

MINING.com

MINING.com is a web-based global mining publication focusing on news and commentary about mining and mineral exploration. The site is a one-stop-shop for mining industry…

More Info

Renewables Could Overtake Fossil Fuels In South Australia By 2025

Renewables Could Overtake Fossil Fuels In South Australia By 2025

Declining renewables and energy storage costs will increasingly squeeze out gas-fired generation in South Australia as early as 2025, a joint research report conducted by Wood Mackenzie and GTM Research shows.

The South Australia experience is noteworthy in a global power mix set to increasingly shift to renewable energy. South Australia retired its last coal plant in 2016 and is projected to have installed renewable energy capacity exceed its peak demand by 2020.

By 2025, wind, solar and battery costs will fall by 15 percent, 25 percent and 50 percent respectively. By then, renewables and batteries could offer a lower cost alternative to combined-cycle gas turbine plants, which are commonly used to manage base load power generation in South Australia.

Meanwhile by 2035, renewables and batteries will provide a commercial solution for both base loads and peak loads. As a consequence, gas will increasingly be used just for emergency back-up.

Wood Mackenzie's Asia-Pacific power and renewables principal analyst, Bikal Pokharel said, "One determining factor is the rate with which battery charging costs declines. By 2025, we expect battery charging cost to decrease as off-peak prices will gradually be set by excess wind generation. Battery storage then becomes a potential solution for managing peak loads.

By 2025 it's expected that 67 percent of South Australia's power capacity will come from renewables. Gas demand in the power sector will then decline by 70 percent.

"Currently, South Australia's peak loads are managed by open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) plants. But by 2025, battery storage would be cheaper than OCGTs in managing peak loads even at gas price of A$7/mmbtu. OCGTs would then be relegated as emergency back-ups."

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 400MW/ 1,600 MWh of battery storage will be sufficient to handle the highest peaking residual demand in 2025. This storage asset will be unlike the 100MW/ 129 MWh Tesla Hornsdale facility which is designed to meet energy security needs. Related: Pace Of US Oil Rig Count Growth Slows As Prices Climb

If all committed and planned renewables projects progress, renewables are expected to be double the capacity today by 2025. This would mean that 67 percent of South Australia's power capacity would be renewables. Gas demand in the power sector will then decline by 70 percent.

However, wind and solar energy are well-known for their intermittent nature. A robust power system needs to consider back-up generation and a supporting ancillary system, as South Australia experienced through a series of power failures in recent years. For now, gas will remain important in ensuring uninterrupted power supply.

"For gas to integrate renewables' intermittency, there needs to be more flexible gas contracts, on an hourly, monthly and annual basis. 'Capacity payments' or the introduction of 'must-run units' will be needed to ensure sustainability of gas-fired power plants. If gas contracts can't meet the flexibility required for this, South Australia might need to look at alternative fuels, such as diesel, for back-up power generation," says Pokharel.

"It is also worth noting that renewables built to date have been uneconomic without subsidies, and cost reduction trend will have to continue before they can compete," says Pokharel.

"If current cost trends continue, 2025 could very well see renewables and batteries overtake rival generating alternatives in dominating South Australia's power system, and the region could become a leading case study on managing a power system in transition for other mature markets to follow," concludes Pokharel.

By Mining.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News