follow us like us subscribe contact us
Loading, please wait

ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook - What the Next 30 Years Will Look Like

By Andy Soos | Tue, 13 December 2011 02:19 | 0

There are many predictions, many demands and many possibilities for future energy use and sources. ExxonMobil has just released their prediction of how energy demands will be served in the next few decades. ExxonMobil’s just-released Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 takes a look into the future and finds that technology advancements over the next three decades will produce greater supplies of energy, more diverse supplies of energy and new ways to save energy — all of which will be essential to meeting future energy demand.

ExxonMobil’s 2012 Outlook for Energy sees efficiency, developing world economic growth and natural gas reshaping global. Demand through 2040 is to be about 30 percent higher in 2040 versus 2010 as population grows and global GDP doubles; demand in developing nations to rise nearly 60 percent; natural gas from shale and other unconventional rock formations will account for 30 percent of global gas production by 2040; demand growth would be more than four times the projected 30 percent without expected gains in efficiency.

Extending its annual long-term energy forecast to 2040 for the first time, ExxonMobil said this year's Outlook reveals several trends that will influence how the world uses energy over the coming decades.

The Outlook projects that global energy demand in 2040 will be about 30 percent higher than it was in 2010, led by growth in developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.

While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, overall energy demand will be reshaped by a continued shift toward less-carbon-intensive energy sources — such as natural gas — as well as steep improvements in energy efficiency in areas like transportation, where the expanded use of hybrid vehicles will help push average new-car fuel economy to nearly 50 miles per gallon by 2040.

Among the findings:

While demand in the United States and other fully developed economies will remain relatively constant, global growth in energy demand will be led by China and other countries which are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non OECD energy demand is projected to rise by nearly 60 percent from 2010 to 2040.

Efficiency is the key reason why energy demand will rise by only about 1 percent a year on average even as global GDP rises by nearly 3 percent a year. It also is the reason why OECD energy demand will remain relatively unchanged through 2040 even as its economic output nearly doubles.

In transportation, the second-fastest growing demand sector behind electricity generation, ExxonMobil sees advanced hybrid vehicles accounting for 50 percent of the cars people will drive in 2040, compared to about 1 percent today. This, plus improved fuel economy in conventional vehicles, will cause demand for energy for personal vehicles to remain essentially flat through 2040 even as the number of personal vehicles in the world doubles.

However, demand for energy for commercial transportation -- trucks, airplanes, ships and trains -- will rise by more than 70 percent, driven by economic growth, particularly in Non OECD nations.

Demand for oil and other liquid fuels will rise by nearly 30 percent, and most of that increase will be linked to transportation. A growing share of the supplies used to meet liquid-fuel demand will come from deepwater, oil sands, tight oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels.

Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel, and demand will increase by about 60 percent from 2010 to 2040. Growth is particularly strong in the Non OECD countries in the Asia Pacific region, where demand for natural gas is expected to triple over the next 30 years.

While growth in nuclear capacity is expected to slow in the near-term, demand for nuclear power is projected to nearly double over The Outlook for Energy period as nations seek to lower emissions and diversify energy sources.

Renewable fuels will see strong growth. By 2040, more than 15 percent of the world's electricity will be generated by renewable fuels -- solar, wind, biofuels, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric power. The fastest-growing of these will be wind, which will increase by about 8 percent per year from 2010 to 2040.

By. Andy Soos

Be the first to comment on this article.

Leave a comment