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Haley Zaremba

Haley Zaremba

Haley Zaremba is a writer and journalist based in Mexico City. She has extensive experience writing and editing environmental features, travel pieces, local news in the…

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Today's Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

Refinery

As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. As Saudi Arabia announces plans to slash production and move their economy away from oil dependency, many industry insiders are predicting that the now over-saturated market will reach an equilibrium with higher commodity prices by 2018 and U.S. shale production will continue to grow along with global demand.

Robert Johnston, the CEO of one of the world’s biggest political risk consultancies, is unconvinced. In a speech made at the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators’ 2017 International Petroleum Summit, Johnston laid out his concerns for the future of oil.

What I don’t hear people asking is, ‘then what?’ Are the Saudis going to maintain these production cuts forever, or at some point do they have to start reversing that? I think in 2018 they will be reversing those production cuts,” he said. These important questions aren’t getting enough attention according to Johnston, whose firm Eurasia Group foresees a fast-approaching supply gap that Saudi Arabia and U.S. oil may not be able to fill.

Eurasia Group forecasts about 7 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) of new crude supply by 2022. This includes about 5 MMbbl/d of U.S. shale growth and about 2 MMbbl/d from oil sands and deepwater extraction. But by the year 2022, another 15 MMbbl/d of new supply may be needed, as demand trends predict an annual growth rate of about 1 MMbbl/d. With this kind of impending discrepancy between supply and demand, the industry needs to start looking for new sources of oil, and quickly.

Despite the recent dip in oil prices, industry experts have been predicting a supply-gap and rising oil prices for years. This is due in large part to an oil investment drought marked by two year of consecutive decline, a statistic that has no precedent in the oil industry. This year a report by the International Energy Agency concluded that if oil investment remains stagnant over the next few years, by 2020 we will see a significant increase in the price of oil as global demand continues to climb.

The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol addressed these findings in a keynote address at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi in January, announcing that no major oil projects were started in the last year and there were zero large oil discoveries “because there is no money for exploration. You find something if you look for it," Birol said. Related: Oil Prices Rise As Most OPEC Members Back Deal Extension

The potential supply gap has far-reaching implications that we are not ready to combat. Gas and oil are still fundamental to much of the world’s infrastructure, despite a steady increase of research and utilization of renewable energy resources. While electric cars continue to show a promising future, especially in the light of ambitious new green car policy initiatives in India and China, they still account for less than 2 percent of the world’s cars. And, as the global middle class continues to grow and exercise their buying power, the demand for oil will continue to grow alongside them.

The oil industry desperately needs new sources of oil, and they need new investors and technologies to find those sources quickly. There are currently a wide variety of techniques employed to find new deposits (seismic prospecting, well logging, gravity surveying, magnetic prospecting, and geochemical prospecting, etc.) but these are all methods with significant limitations in their ability to accurately estimate the size of new oil and gas deposits.

Many companies, including oil giant BP, have begun efforts to develop of artificial intelligence programs with algorithms that will allow them to find and drill with unprecedented accuracy in the future, but the technology is not yet ready. We can only hope that it will be ready by 2020 or that the IEA is wrong in their predictions.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

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  • snoopyloopy on May 21 2017 said:
    Oil is very near a catch-22. If there really turns out to be a shortage in 2020, the resulting escalation in prices will push a lot more people to purchase electric cars, the price of which will also have fallen in the interim. Assuming that they will remain such low single-digit percentages of the fleet is amazingly short-sighted and nonsensical because more models with more range are just beginning to reach market. Additionally, while everyone focuses on electric cars (and how few there are), electric buses and trucks are also making their way into the field and each of them removes the equivalent of several cars worth of oil demand from the market.
  • zorro6204 on May 21 2017 said:
    I don't agree, I think there's plenty of oil coming online by that time, Argentina and the Bashenov are just getting started. Plus, I think the end of the oil age is lot closer than anyone thinks. Yes, there could be a lot of cars being added in the third world. but that doesn't mean they'll burn gas!
  • Arun on May 21 2017 said:
    There is a error in calculation. 1Mbd increase in demand until 2022, will result in only 5Mbpd increase and not 15Mbpd. And this does not consider the fact electric car might render oil useless almost by 2040. So each and every country ll pump at will. Eventhough open ll make us believe, there will be no investment of oil prices are low, it is totally wrong. The cost of production in most OPEC countries is single digit and no investor ll leave 20-30% return. So money ll come, only problem is oil related countries ll have to diversify their economy and not depend on oil for their whole countries budget
  • Bill Simpson on May 21 2017 said:
    I'm sticking with my now 8 year old prediction of a crisis beginning around 2022. (Advances in horizontal drilling could make me off, until as late as 2030, but that long is unlikely. I give it between 2022 and 2025.)
    The danger lies in the financial system, which contains record levels of debt. Less work being able to be done from using less energy from oil, means the global economy has to shrink. That is physics no technology we have now can change. (Fusion could do it, but I've been waiting 50 years for that.)
    The subsequent recession could easily transform into a downward spiral, since the economic contraction will be caused, for the first time in modern history, by a physical limit that can't be overcome. Once an over leveraged financial system starts to shrink, it will be extremely difficult to stop a complete collapse. It nearly collapsed in 2008, coming within weeks of a meltdown. The Treasury Secretary of the United States, Henry Paulson, was literally gagging from the stress and fear. He is a pretty smart fellow, and knows a bit about finance. Since 2008, additional debt has been created. That makes the system even more unstable.
    That is my worry, that we can't simply wind down economic activity to match the liquid fuel supply from the oil available. The bursting of the credit bubble will get us. Once the trouble starts, relatively few people will understand why it is happening, or the link to crude oil.
    Watch for all kinds of crazy attempts by governments to stop the collapse. They might work for a few months, or possible even a few years. But the combination of peak oil and excessive debt, will probably get us in the end. Humans are unlikely to ever live as well as we have lived during our Petroleum Age. Oil is often called 'black gold', but it is far more useful than gold will ever be. Doubt that? Would you rather run out of gold or oil tomorrow? Like to eat? Oil puts the food in your mouth.
    I hope I'm wrong.
  • Bharath on May 22 2017 said:
    exactly @snoopyloop no one focussing on buses and tractors, they remove millions of oil demand
  • Johnny on May 22 2017 said:
    Interesting. I read article few days ago and found that tanks remain full with crude world wide and what was drained again was refilled.Even storage tankers.
  • Dan on May 22 2017 said:
    I'm still heating my house while watching endless babyboomer traffic go by on their vacation that will last 25 years. Demand is there and depends on time of year. No one will buy the electric cars because as Ford ex CEO called it, used car prices will plunge. This makes expensive electric cars a lost cause. On demand autos used to be called taxi. No thanks. Give me my Hot Rod and Route 66.
  • EdBCN on May 23 2017 said:
    There is something that doesn't add up with the numbers here on supply and demand. Also, EVs do not make up anywhere near 2% of cars. That's off by at least an order of magnitude as they barley represent more than 1% of sales, so they can't be much off of .1% of cars.
  • John Granville on May 24 2017 said:
    All old news.... Nothing personal, but a Content Manager at a travel company commenting on the oil patch? To insiders there is nothing new about the survey, drill, develop (if a commercial discovery is made) and re-invest cycle. To those of us who have spent their entire careers in the industry the current lack of re-investment will bring significant supply problems in the future (2020? 2022? 2025?... Pick any number you wish between now and 2027, all of these writers seem to be doing that), not least among them will be the lack of an experienced workforce to actually get out there in the field and get the job done, survey vessels and rigs can be brought back to life quickly enough but finding sufficient numbers of experienced personnel? Good luck on that one!
  • Timmie Tee on May 24 2017 said:
    I doubt EV's ever make it past 10% share, just too many downsides in range, charging, battery disposal, and initial cost. Hydrogen has a better future, but will take time. I think $60 bbl is the minimum needed to support E&P at a sustainable level, and the longer it's under that level, the higher the spike will be when shortages arise.
  • johnny Dax on May 25 2017 said:
    This article is fanciful. There is so much oil available and so much easily accessible oil that's already mapped that prices won't ever return to $65+ before EV and renewables reach of tipping point that makes oil essentially as cheap as sand. By 2022, oil is more likely to be $20 per barrel than $50.
  • I_Fck_slam on June 14 2017 said:
    Oil will stay at these levels for decades. THERE is enough oil discoveries to supply the world for the next 30 years. They just need to be developed. .. OPEC IS TOAST.

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