follow us like us subscribe contact us
Adbar

Oil Market Forecast & Review 19th April 2013

By Jim Hyerczyk | Fri, 19 April 2013 19:57 | 0

Last week’s technical report suggested that June crude oil was poised for a volatile move because of the triangle chart pattern formation it had formed. Although the chart pattern indicated that the market could trade sideways for several weeks, bearish traders couldn’t wait and drove the market through support with a vengeance.

Following the break through the support line at $91.63, June crude oil accelerated to the downside when it took out the last swing bottom at $90.23. A sustained move through this level led to a test of another bottom at $87.22.


(Click to enlarge.)

Although the market penetrated this level with a move to $85.90, there are signs on the daily chart that it may have reached an oversold level and could be ripe for a short-term retracement. Since the fundamentals and the technical are both signaling further weakness, any rally is likely to be sold.

Based on the current downside momentum, the market is on pace to test the June 2012 bottom at $81.46. A move to this level will send a strong signal to investors that professional traders believe the economy is poised to weaken further.

As of the week-ending April 9, the Commitment of Traders reports showed that long speculators liquidated 20,158 contracts. Although commercial traders increased their long positions by 34,759, they still maintained their overall short position in the market.

This week’s report is likely to show more liquidation by…

To read the rest of this article Start a FREE subscription to our premium publication

Oil & Energy Insider - 30 day Free trial

30 day Free trial
A FREE Subscription Includes:
  • Investment advice normally reserved for hedge fund clients.
  • Market & sector research not available anywhere else.
  • Strategic advice from corporate & military intelligence analysts.
  • 9 Weekly Investment / intelligence reports.
  • Full access to all previous reports.
  • 30 days free trial.
Get FREE access to our research for 30 days

An essential resource for all investors in the energy sector whether you're a trader, fund manager or individual investor - this inside look at the energy markets is unlike any other report or service currently available.

About the author

More recent articles by Jim Hyerczyk

Fri 07 February 2014
Oil Market Forecast & Review 7th February 2014
Sun 02 February 2014
Oil Market Forecast & Review 31st January 2014
Fri 24 January 2014
Oil Market Forecast & Review 23rd January 2014
Fri 17 January 2014
Oil Market Forecast & Review 17th January 2014
Fri 10 January 2014
Oil Market Forecast & Review 10th January 2014