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Open Interest Analyst

Open Interest Analyst

Contributor since: 04 Apr 2013

Open Interest Analyst

Garry Stern

Garry is the founder of openinterestanalyst.com (OIA), a website dedicated to analysing the interaction between price, volume, and open interest (P-V-OI). After consistently applying (P-V-OI) to his own trading beginning in the 70′s, Garry knows that professional money managers would find this data to be a valuable addition to their own suite of tools. During the course of his trading, he searched for, but was unable to find a site that provided (P-V-OI) data with in-depth analysis. As a result, in December 2011, he founded OIA whose mission was to issue daily reports based upon his interpretation of (P-V-OI). Garry is not an investment advisor, nor a broker, therefore he does not provide investment advice to individuals.

A  San Francisco native, Garry spent most of his career in media sales and advertising.  He was a founding partner of the San Francisco advertising agency Taylor Spencer Granville in 1980, which handled accounts for Alfa Romeo, KCBS, Lucasfilm and California Magazine. Prior to this, he sold advertising for KCBS radio and represented national publications such as Town & Country, Geo, and Cuisine magazines. He has a broad range of business experience having advised numerous businesses on their media and marketing strategies.

He began trading commodities when volatility began to increase after the U.S. sold a large amount of wheat to the former Soviet Union. This began a commodity boom that lasted for several years and peaked with the collapse of the gold and silver markets in 1980. During this time, he subscribed to weekly charts from the Commodity Research Bureau and used these in conjunction with his analysis of  (P-V-OI) to pinpoint trading opportunities. The book that inspired him to use this method was written by L. Dee Belveal in the 1960′s, “Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior“.

When financial content exploded on the internet in the 1990′s, Garry had the opportunity to analyse commodities and stocks using data that had not been readily available before. During the past 15 years, he has evaluated every technical approach that could possibly give him an edge. Through research, he developed a set of protocols that have helped him identify trades that he considers optimal: Trades with good upside and lower risk-versus trades that may have good upside, but also have higher risk and are thus sub-optimal. He discourages speculators from taking sub-optimal futures trades because conditions for the set-up are weak: (1) The trend is not strong. (2) Volume and open interest stats do not confirm price action or the validity of the move. (3) The commodity is overbought/oversold and is likely to pull back, or reverse entirely. (4) The correct placement of stops subject the position to excessive risk. (5) There are better opportunities available with less risk. It should be noted that sub-optimal trades may be candidates for a variety of option strategies.

Through his trading, he has made his share of mistakes and though they have been costly at times, he has never met a margin call, nor has he blown-up his account. In addition to identifying high value trade set-ups, his experience directs him what not to do, which is crucial when trading commodities. OIA brings to light little known, but important data points and interprets their significance.  He integrates this and his experience into strategies and tactics that make reading reports from OIA compelling for futures professionals. For more information on Garry’s methodology and recent trades, please see the tab: “What We Do For Clients.”

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