Gail Tverberg

Latest articles from Gail

• The Unexpected Threat To Our Economic Growth System

  Published 18 March 2016 | viewed 10,092 times

  Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by…

• Demand For Oil Slows As Globalization Reaches Limits

  Published 03 March 2016 | viewed 20,631 times

  We have been living in a world of rapid globalization, but this is not a condition that we can expect to continue indefinitely.Figure 1. Ratio…

• A Market Collapse Is On The Horizon

  Published 12 February 2016 | viewed 52,930 times

  What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: 1. Growth in debt2. Growth in the economy3. Growth in…

• 10 Reasons why Sub $30 Oil Is A Major Problem

  Published 21 January 2016 | viewed 31,006 times

  A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What…

• Why Low Oil Prices Won’t Cure Low Oil Prices

  Published 27 November 2015 | viewed 14,276 times

  The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make…

• The Peak Oil Story We Have Been Told Is Wrong

  Published 29 September 2015 | viewed 30,786 times

  Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added…

• Our Energy Problem Could Lead To A Major Debt Crisis

  Published 16 September 2015 | viewed 10,538 times

  Usually, we don’t stop to think about how the whole economy works together. A major reason is that we have been lacking data to see…

• We Could See An Economic Collapse As Debt Defaults Pile Up

  Published 28 August 2015 | viewed 24,296 times

  Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is…

• ‘Net Energy’ Deficit Preventing Economic Growth

  Published 12 August 2015 | viewed 9,603 times

  We all know generally how today’s economy works:Figure 1 Our economy is a networked system. I have illustrated it as being similar to a child’s…

• 9 Reasons Why We Should Be More Worried About Low Oil Prices

  Published 24 July 2015 | viewed 30,950 times

  Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, the question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end…

• BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand

  Published 24 June 2015 | viewed 10,048 times

  Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting…

• Why EIA, IEA, And BP Oil Forecasts Are Too High

  Published 10 June 2015 | viewed 10,569 times

  When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following:1. Figure out how much GDP growth…

• The “Upside Down” Peak Oil Story

  Published 07 May 2015 | viewed 13,917 times

  The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk.…

• Why It Won’t Matter If Oil Prices Rebound

  Published 15 April 2015 | viewed 16,625 times

  What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories. One is the story economists tell: The economy can…

• The Real Problem Behind Low Oil Prices

  Published 13 March 2015 | viewed 24,607 times

  For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will…

• Oil Limits Could Undermine Our Entire Economic System

  Published 16 February 2015 | viewed 12,551 times

  Many readers have asked me to explain debt. They also wonder, “Why can’t we just cancel debt and start over?” if we are reaching oil…

• How The Economy Is Tied To Energy – Part 2

  Published 05 February 2015 | viewed 12,064 times

  In Part 1 of this series, I talked about why cheap fuels act to create economic growth. In this post, we will look at some…

• How The Economy Is Tied To Energy

  Published 28 January 2015 | viewed 16,580 times

  How does the economy really work? In my view, there are many erroneous theories in published literature. I have been investigating this topic and have…

• Current Oil Crisis More Dangerous Than You Think

  Published 08 January 2015 | viewed 111,343 times

  The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016? Newspapers in the United States seem to…

• Economic Inefficiency Means Low Oil Prices Are Here To Stay

  Published 31 December 2014 | viewed 18,448 times

  Since about 2001, several sectors of the economy have become increasingly inefficient, in the sense that it takes more resources to produce a given output,…