For Putin, this war against Ukraine is all about winning unmitigated power at home. That is made rather more difficult by an economy that is tanking under the pressure of severe Western sanctions, and by the resolve of the Ukrainians as more and more bodies of Russian soldiers come home. It's an increasingly difficult story to sell at home.
Now, Putin is attempting to reach out to the Russian masses with some financial measures that he promises will help overcome what he calls the failed "economic blitzkrieg" by the West, which he compared to anti-semitic violence by fascists. The ruble has collapsed, inflation is soaring, increasingly costly staples are disappearing from shelves, and the economic crisis is undeniable. Still, the consequences of sanctions are just beginning to be felt, which means that Putin's standing in the polls is not yet being destroyed, and there is still time for him to create an increased amount of fear at home, based on an external threat, to avoid being blamed for a total financial meltdown that affects every single Russian.
The new story being pushed by Moscow attempts to reduce Ukraine to a mere puppet of the United States in this war. Ukraine is no longer a great enough "threat" now for Putin to accomplish what he needs to at home (the move from autocratic to authoritarian). Instead, Russians are being told they are at war with the United States, bringing this to a much more serious level.
Putin now needs to appear victorious…
For Putin, this war against Ukraine is all about winning unmitigated power at home. That is made rather more difficult by an economy that is tanking under the pressure of severe Western sanctions, and by the resolve of the Ukrainians as more and more bodies of Russian soldiers come home. It's an increasingly difficult story to sell at home.
Now, Putin is attempting to reach out to the Russian masses with some financial measures that he promises will help overcome what he calls the failed "economic blitzkrieg" by the West, which he compared to anti-semitic violence by fascists. The ruble has collapsed, inflation is soaring, increasingly costly staples are disappearing from shelves, and the economic crisis is undeniable. Still, the consequences of sanctions are just beginning to be felt, which means that Putin's standing in the polls is not yet being destroyed, and there is still time for him to create an increased amount of fear at home, based on an external threat, to avoid being blamed for a total financial meltdown that affects every single Russian.
The new story being pushed by Moscow attempts to reduce Ukraine to a mere puppet of the United States in this war. Ukraine is no longer a great enough "threat" now for Putin to accomplish what he needs to at home (the move from autocratic to authoritarian). Instead, Russians are being told they are at war with the United States, bringing this to a much more serious level.
Putin now needs to appear victorious in some manner in order to stop the carnage (on both sides). That's where NATO comes in. This is a game of words for the politically ignorant masses. If you follow what appears to be Zelensky's squabble with NATO over a no-fly zone, which he knew would not happen, to the culmination, you see him set the stage for negotiations with Russia. It goes something like this: NATO refuses to allow a no-fly zone, which would be a NATO declaration of war against Russia (i.e. WWIII)… Ukraine is angry with NATO and now has an excuse to formally declare that it will not join the military bloc in the future (since it let Ukraine down)… Putin gets to pretend this is his victory and end the war. NATO is undamaged and would never itself have agreed to an eternal commitment that Ukraine would never join the bloc, even though such a move was not on the cards in the foreseeable future. If Putin determines that this manner of "victory" will be enough to accomplish what he needs to at home (a victorious leader who can justifiably be more powerful than he currently is, or even rule "for life"), then it is possible he would end the war on this note.
During negotiations on Tuesday, Zelensky already hinted as much, saying that Ukraine must "accept" it will not become a member of NATO. Not that it doesn't want to become a member of NATO, but the insinuation is that NATO will not allow it, which is ostensibly made clear by refusing the no-fly zone and the fact that it was never on the cards because of frozen conflicts on Ukrainian territory.
If it does not end this way, and indications right now are that it will not, Russia is preparing to bring mercenaries from various locations to bolster its forces as the Ukrainians continue to put up fierce resistance. Chechen volunteers are already on their way - a 1,000-strong force - according to Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, who seems eager to join in the "denazification" of Ukraine. Some of those forces could also come from Syria, Libya, and even Serbia, which in itself would have a destabilizing backlash in the Balkans.
Bosnia could be the next Ukraine. If there was any question about that before, Moscow laid any doubts to rest on Thursday, telling Sarajevo that if it joined NATO it would meet the same fate as Ukraine. Bosnia is already reeling under the pressure of its pro-Russian Bosnian Serb entity, whose leader, Milorad Dodik, is attempting to secede from the state, with Russia's tacit backing, which is intended to maintain an element of "frozen conflict" in Bosnia. Frozen conflicts are, in turn, intended to keep countries out of NATO.
While the ground invasion of Ukraine has stalled, Russia is stepping up its aerial bombardment and expanding that westward by Lviv, near the Ukrainian border with Poland, indiscriminately targeting civilian structures. Putin has gone too far. He is now a war criminal with little motivation to turn back. The number one goal is to remain in power, and everything will be dictated by that motivation.
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