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Is OPEC Producing More Oil Than It Claims?

The March OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the February production data. All data is through February 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

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OPEC crude only production was down 77,000 barrels per day in February but that was after January production had been revised downward 40,000 barrels per day.

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It seems most OPEC countries want to say they are producing less than what "secondary sources" say they are producing. Either they are correct, or they are cheating on their quota.

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Not much happening in Algeria. They just continue their slow decline.

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Angola seems to be holding steady.

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Ecuador was up less than a thousand bpd in February, but their decline continues since their 2015 peak.

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Nothing much is happening in Equatorial Guinea.

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Gabon is another of those low producers where not much is happening. Don't know why they joined OPEC. For the prestige I suppose.

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Iran is obviously producing flat out since they recovered from sanctions.

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Iraq is another country that appears to be producing flat out. Their average in 2017 was 4,441 thousand barrels per day. Their February production was only 16,000 barrels per day below that figure.

Related: U.S. Sets New Monthly Oil Production Record

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Kuwait has been holding almost flat since January 2017.

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Libya is holding at just under one million barrels per day.

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Things seem to be settling down in Nigeria. Their political problems continue but their oil production is holding steady at around 1,800,000 barrels per day.

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Qatar peaked in 2008 and has been in a slow decline ever since.

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Saudi Arabia is holding steady at about 400,000 barrels per day below their 2017 average. Related: How Oil Drives The South China Sea Conflict


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The UAE increased production in the last quarter of 2016, positioning themselves for the quota cut. Then they cut but they seem to be still cutting. That don't look good.

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Venezuela is still collapsing, politically as well as oil production wise. I see no hope for them.

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World oil supply continues to increase slightly. This is all liquids of course.

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Russia, currently the world's leading oil producer, leveled out in May 2017 and has been holding relatively steady since.

By Peak Oil Barrel

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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura… More