Oil will continue to be the fuel with the single largest share of the global energy mix by 2045, meeting 28 percent of energy demand then, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday, stressing the need for investments in oil supply to meet consumption.
“Oil is expected to retain its number one position in the global energy mix and provide 28 percent of the world’s energy needs by 2045,” Barkindo said at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, presenting OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO).
The outlook says that global oil demand is expected to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC said when it first unveiled the outlook.
“Despite decelerating oil demand growth in the second part of the forecast period and strong growth in other energy sources, such as other renewables, gas and nuclear, oil is expected to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire period. In 2020, oil accounted for 30% of global energy requirements. Alongside post-pandemic oil demand recovery, the share of oil is anticipated to gradually increase to a level of more than 31% by 2025, before it begins a decline and reach 28% by 2045,” according to OPEC’s outlook.
Discussing the need for oil investment in view of meeting demand in the long term, Barkindo said today that “any talk of the oil and gas industries being consigned to the past and of the need to halt new investments in oil and gas is wrong-headed.”
“Let me stress that the return of investments is a core objective of the Declaration of Cooperation,” he said, referring to the agreement of the OPEC+ group, which has been managing supply to the market for several years now.
OPEC, oil industry executives, and analysts have been warning this year that chronic underinvestment in oil supply, while demand is still growing, would lead to energy crunches within a few years.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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