What Prigozhin’s Death Means For Putin

On Wednesday, news began to circulate that the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary outfit, Prigozhin, died in a plane crash between St. Petersburg and Moscow (along with 7 of his top lieutenants). Just days prior, reports emerged that Russian military officials (not Wagner) had just met with Haftar in Libya. Normally, this would have been Wagner because Libya is one of its key stomping grounds (on behalf of the Kremlin).

And on Tuesday, right before the alleged plane crash, Prigozhin appeared on a video (again, the legitimacy of the video cannot be determined at this time) calling on recruits for Africa, Wagner's wider stomping ground (the Sahel).

That Prigozhin attempted a mutiny in Moscow (and failed) has created much turmoil for Putin. He was allowed to walk away, but after that, his activities became very unclear. Two months later, no one really knows what he had been doing during that time, let alone whether he actually died in a plane crash (accidental or orchestrated) this week.

There are many possibilities to consider here, from a Putin-orchestrated assassination or an assassination by Russia's military officials whom Prigozhin was constantly making a move against (Shoigu and Gerasimov, specifically)-or simply a random plane crash. There is no perfectly credible way to confirm any of the latest reports coming out of Moscow.

Let's look at what has happened to anyone rallying behind Prigozhin since the failed mutiny-and by "rallying behind" we mean calling for a full-on war strategy with regard to Ukraine, which Putin is trying to steer away from. On Tuesday, we learned that Surovikin (Russia's Aerospace commander) was fired, though his status has remained unclear since the mutiny. Prigozhin ally Igor Girkin has also been arrested.

Putin has created a public war monster. This was the price to pay for the need to drum up support for the invasion of Ukraine. Now, it's gotten out of control, with Prigozhin having been the face of a powerful group within Russia that wants to mobilize the entire country to war. The irony, of course, is lost on no one. Putin is now cleaning house not of anti-war figures, but of radically pro-war ones. The Prigozhin plane crash, whatever the cause, does not mean this is over for Putin. 

Wagner's activities on behalf of the Kremlin in Africa right now are extremely destabilizing, but they have also been necessary for Putin. In Africa, Wagner is essentially the Kremlin's forward foreign policy force. From Washington's perspective, Wagner is a transnational criminal organization-a categorization that came about because of its role in the war in Ukraine.

In various venues in Africa (Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Sudan, Mozambique to name but a few) Wagner has been offering its mercenary services in return for various forms of payment, most preferably natural resources rights. Sudan's al-Bashir granted them gold exports to Russia in return for guarding the country's natural resources and quashing dissent, among other things. Right now, there are indications that the group is operating to overthrow the president of Chad, and most recently, there is intelligence that Wagner played a role in the Niger coup (where the U.S. may lose its drone base as a result) that is spreading instability across the region and opening the door to an Islamic radical resurgence. 

So, where does Prigozhin's alleged death leave Putin's "forward Africa policy"? It is very likely that Putin has spent the last two months since the failed mutiny quietly dismantling Wagner, or re-inventing it, more to the point. The plane crash (or downing) would, then, signal that things have been successfully rolled over with no more need for Prigozhin or his top commanders. 

The biggest indication of this might be the visit just this week of Russian military officials to Libya, where they allegedly sat down with Haftar. It sounds like the passing of the mercenary torch, but much remains unknown. 

Prigozhin's death also benefits the U.S., but only to some extent-and only if Putin hasn't managed to dismantle and re-invent Wagner already.