Nuclear Diplomacy In The Middle East

Washington's push to shift the balance of relations in the Middle East, which hinges on the normalization of relations with Israel, continues to gain serious momentum, most recently this week with the Saudi Crown Prince's interview with Fox News throwing a bone to Tel Aviv, but not without raising the Palestinian question.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) told Fox on Wednesday that negotiations on normalization with Israel were getting closer every day, but the Palestinian issue needs to be resolved first. But what Riyadh wants more is a U.S. defense pack and nuclear energy aid. 

MBS' interview with Fox (the media outlet was carefully chosen) was intended to express means of leverage over the Biden administration to the American public. Publicly, Riyadh is gunning for a Palestinian state, a victory that would win the Saudis a major legacy in the region. But off the books, knowing full well the impossibility of a Palestinian state, particularly with Israel's highly nationalist government, the Saudis would settle for defense and nuclear aid. The Saudi rapprochement with Iran plays into this as well, giving both Tehran and Riyadh more leverage as Iran navigates tricky negotiations with Washington.

Both the Saudi rapprochement and Washington's recent deals with Iran make the normalization of relations with Israel even more challenging, of course, but the reality is that these things cannot exist in a vacuum. 

Why? Because now that we know that Iran appears to have the capability to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in as little as 10 days, and the capability to produce a nuclear weapon itself in just a matter of months, the means for averting war in the Middle East are losing strength. If Iran produces a nuclear weapon, there is a high likelihood that Israel will attack Iran's nuclear sites, and the stakes are even higher now with normalization efforts hanging in the balance, and with Riyadh and Tehran having formally restored diplomatic ties. Washington would have a hard time avoiding involvement here.

The Saudis, of course, are well aware of these dynamics (so are the Qataris, who are hoping to capitalize on their mediation efforts between Tehran and Washington). 

Riyadh has been flirting with the Chinese to further Saudi nuclear energy ambitions, while Washington has long refused to provide any assistance. As such, uranium enrichment is one of the items the Saudis are putting forward as a pathway to normalization of relations with Israel. While the last thing Washington wants is another potential nuclear power in the Middle East, it may be one of the only conceivable ways to ensure normalization. The deal would potentially see a U.S.-run uranium enrichment operation in Saudi Arabia, and the Israelis are helping negotiate it. If there is no US-Saudi deal on this, Riyadh will likely turn to the Chinese, leaving Washington with zero control with respect to safeguards.