Israel's Plan to Expand Settlements Weakens U.S. Support

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Tel Aviv added more fuel to the fire in the conflict with Gaza this week by announcing an expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank, a move that prompted a backlash in Washington. The U.S. views the move as a violation of international law and one that promises to further intensify the conflict - including the potential for the conflict to gain momentum in proxy conflict zones. Israel also this week reiterated that it would not retreat until Hamas was completely annihilated.

Iranians headed to the polls on Friday for parliamentary elections for the Assembly of Experts, which in turn chooses the next Supreme Leader. The vote is widely believed to be rigged in favor of the incumbent conservatives. Most Reformists have already been disqualified from running. Former president Rouhani is among those disqualified. The only real vote here is between factions among the hardline conservatives, and overall observers are expecting low voter turnout.

Despite Middle tensions over Israel's aggressive retaliation in Gaza, Israel says its gas exports to Egypt and Jordan rose 25% in 2023, with Tel Aviv noting that this is proof of the strategic value of Israel's newfound gas assets.

On the Red Sea, keep a close eye on reports of Iranian weapons shipments to Sudan (Sudanese Armed Forces), which is embroiled in a civil war. In the same manner that the Iranians are helping Yemen's Houthis arm themselves, they could also expand the Houthis Red Sea campaign to Sudan. If Sudan were to direct its Iranian weapons to its Red Sea coast, it could target vessels coming from the Mediterranean and through the Suez Canal toward the Arabian Sea. For the reserve journey, vessels could be targeted first by the Houthis at Bab el-Mandeb and then off Sudan.

Discovery & Development

Pemex has increased its refining output for January, with its six in-Mexico refineries processing nearly a million bpd of crude oil. This is a 14% increase over January 2023, and 20% more than the 2023 average. Despite the increase, Pemex is still only running its refineries at half capacity. Refineries produced 308,000 bpd of gasoline, 193,000 bpd of diesel, and 312,000 bpd of fuel oil in January. For gasoline in particular, that's a 41% increase over January 2023. Mexico still imports a substantial portion of the gasoline it consumes.

An Impact Oil & Gas and TotalEnergies consortium is continuing its appraisal well drilling of its Venus oil discovery in Namibia's Orange basin in Block 2913B. Africa Oil is a 31.1% shareholder in Impact Oil & Gas. So far, Mangetti-1X has intersected hydrocarbon bearing intervals in the Mangetti fan prospect-a separate fan system to Venus. The Venus-2A appraisal well is now being drilled and 3D seismic data is currently being gathered. Results from Venus 1X and 2A will be incorporated in development studies.

CNOOC said it had discovered the world's largest metamorphic rock oilfield in the south Bohai Sea in the Bozhong 26-6 oilfield. Bohai 26-6 achieved record-breaking production levels with 40 million cubic meters of proved oil and gas reserves, bringing the cumulative proven reserves of the field to more than 200 million cubic meters. The oilfield could yield as much as 30 million cubic meters of oil and produce more than 11 billion cubic meters of nat gas, CNOOC said.

Wintershall DEA's appraisal well 6507/4-4 S boosted slightly the resource estimate for a gas/condensate discovery near the Norwegian Sea's Dvalin field, which was drilled to confirm a previous discovery known as the Adriana, made in 2021. Previous estimates were that the discovery held between 3 and 5 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalent, but new information from the appraisal well shows it could be between 4 and 7 standard cubic meters. Partners in the project, production license 211CS, are Petoro, Aker BP, and PGNiG.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Macquarie Group is prepared to sell off its stake in the $55B green energy project known as the Australian Renewable Energy Hub. The project includes 1700 wind turbines and 26GW of solar panel capacity. BP said it could snap up the stake, leaving it with a 64% share of the project.

A squabble has reared up in Guyana over Chevron's $53B deal for Hess, with Exxon-who has already found significant oil in the country's Stabroek block, balking at the deal, arguing that it has the right of first refusal. Exxon owns 45% of the Stabroek block and is operator, while Hess currently owns 30%. Chevron has warned that if talks with Exxon didn't result in an acceptable resolution, its deal with Hess could be called off.