Iran is seeking to gain a more secure foothold in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and the protests spreading across Iran present a good justification for Tehran to take action, as well as being a key venue for suppressing the protests.
Iran's relationship with the Iraqi Kurds has changed much over the past decades, particularly since 2003 when the U.S. invasion of Iraq led to the creation of the official KRI, complete with its own oil - ostensibly. When the KRI launched a failed referendum for independence from Baghdad in 2017, the Iranians started to become more active. Tehran's natural ally in Iraqi Kurdistan is the PUK party, which is no longer the dominant party. The dominant party, the KDP, is closer to Turkey, but its position is also weak - and getting weaker, with Iran happy to fill in the cracks.
Since the Kurdish referendum failed, militant Iraqi Kurdish groups have deployed to the Iraq-Iran border, causing significant anxiety in Tehran. These groups, who join the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers Party) in this border region now, are using this move for extra funding (smuggling) and as preparation to pounce should the situation between the U.S. and Iran escalate into a military move by Washington. Or, in an unforeseen development, should nationwide protests create massive instability in Iran, giving the Kurds an open window to make their move (like they did in Syria).
From this perspective, Iran's attacks this week on Iraqi Kurdish forces (those who…
Iran is seeking to gain a more secure foothold in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and the protests spreading across Iran present a good justification for Tehran to take action, as well as being a key venue for suppressing the protests.
Iran's relationship with the Iraqi Kurds has changed much over the past decades, particularly since 2003 when the U.S. invasion of Iraq led to the creation of the official KRI, complete with its own oil - ostensibly. When the KRI launched a failed referendum for independence from Baghdad in 2017, the Iranians started to become more active. Tehran's natural ally in Iraqi Kurdistan is the PUK party, which is no longer the dominant party. The dominant party, the KDP, is closer to Turkey, but its position is also weak - and getting weaker, with Iran happy to fill in the cracks.
Since the Kurdish referendum failed, militant Iraqi Kurdish groups have deployed to the Iraq-Iran border, causing significant anxiety in Tehran. These groups, who join the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers Party) in this border region now, are using this move for extra funding (smuggling) and as preparation to pounce should the situation between the U.S. and Iran escalate into a military move by Washington. Or, in an unforeseen development, should nationwide protests create massive instability in Iran, giving the Kurds an open window to make their move (like they did in Syria).
From this perspective, Iran's attacks this week on Iraqi Kurdish forces (those who have deployed to the border) begin to make sense. The protests started when a young woman of Iranian Kurd origins died under mysterious circumstances in the custody of the "morality police" for a headscarf violation. Protests have entered their 14th day and have spread to over 80 towns and cities in Iran. Tehran has now set its Revolutionary Guards into attack mode in Iraqi Kurdistan, accusing Iraqi Kurds of fomenting the unrest that is spreading across Iran following the young woman's death.
While the media is sometimes quick to paint Iran's attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan as simple "revenge", it's much more than that.
The fallout from that death continues to compound. As of Tuesday, the Iran Human Rights group said that 76 people had been killed as the protests spread to 80 cities. RFE/RL's Iranian service, Radio Farda, says that Iranian oil workers are now threatening to strike if attacks on protesters continue. The Iranian drone strike on Iraqi Kurd dissident groups killed nine people and wounded over 30 others early on Wednesday, just 35 miles from the capital, Erbil. A U.S. citizen was among the dead.
Of course, Iran is also keen to ensure that the Iraqi Kurds do not succeed further in their efforts to be their own oil power, bypassing Baghdad, where pro-Iranian control is also resulting in a paralyzed government and seething unrest.
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