Desperate And Incompetent: Hamas May Have Acted Alone

Regardless of any possible involvement of Iran in the attacks on Israel last weekend, which resulted in an Israeli declaration of war, Hamas found itself in an untenable situation. It needed escalation. Desperately. 

There is a case for this attack having been a solo endeavor by Hamas. And that in itself is indicative of the unsustainability of Israel's endless military control of the Palestinian Territories. In that sense, Iran's "involvement" is as irrelevant as it is difficult to define.  

Hamas has found itself in an incredibly vulnerable situation. Its highly corrupt leadership is being questioned in Gaza, and its Arab friends have diluted the Palestinian statehood dreams to the point of normalizing relations with Israel. All of this spells the end of Hamas and brings into focus the existential need for Hamas to launch a horrific attack, an attack which it may have hoped would force Iran's hand. 

Hamas has failed miserably to improve living conditions in the Gaza Strip, which it has ruled since 2007. The first real signs that Hamas would be confronted by its own failures came in July this year when several thousand Gazans took to the streets to protest living standards and constant power outages. This is not something that happens frequently in Gaza as it puts protesters in danger. The incident failed to garner much international media attention just because the numbers didn't make for much of a headline-but the context should have. Hamas, of course, quashed the protest quickly, but not before Hamas flags were symbolically burnt. Somewhere else, this might not have been a hugely significant event, but in the Gaza Strip, it was an indication of dangerous vulnerability.

Hamas is one of two political parties that govern Palestinians in Gaza. Fatah is the other. Fatah rules in the West Bank and was violently forced out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007. Hamas is labeled a terrorist organization by a large group of countries including Israel, the United States, Canada, the EU, and the UK. It is an Islamist militant group that was spun off from the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas' political leader operates out of Qatar, and plenty of Hamas officers can also be found living the high life in Turkey while the people of Gaza suffer. They also have a branch in Lebanon. 

Recently, Hamas has become desperate. Not only did July protests suggest dangerous unrest, but friends (or at least allies of the Palestinian cause) have been abandoning it - a fact that can be seen in the significant momentum shift in the normalization of relations between Gulf countries and Israel.

Egypt is now basically a Hamas enemy, and Iran, Qatar, and Turkey are its only meaningful friends.  

This isn't the first time Hamas has attacked Israel. It's just the biggest, the farthest-reaching, and by far the deadliest. And the missiles are no longer Iranian, even if they are the result of Iranian expertise. Hamas has built its own arsenal and does not take orders from Iran. But the world can be forgiven for assuming some Iranian involvement. Hamas has been known in the past to rely on Iranian forces and Hezbollah. 

To many, it seems impossible that Israel was not aware this attack was coming. Israel knew about the Hamas arsenal. It did not spring up overnight. Tel Aviv claims not to have known about the imminent attack. U.S. intelligence claims not to have known it was coming. Egypt, on the contrary, claims it warned Israel three days prior that it was coming. 

The billion-dollar question now, of course, is what happens next. The Israelis have rained down missile fire on Hamas many times. They have gone in on the ground, as well, but only in contained in-and-out operations. The problem isn't Hamas; it's who comes to Hamas' aid. A full-scale Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip would open Israel up to full-scale attack from Hezbollah (not just low-level missile launches from across the border in Lebanon).

But what we're seeing right now is that Hamas has started relying more on air attacks, dialing down land and sea incursions into Israel since Monday. The Israelis and Hamas are exchanging tit-for-tat airstrikes. As of Tuesday, Israel had regained control of the Gaza border. Direct clashes are in isolated areas. By early Friday, indications were that while Hamas rocket attacks were still being launched into the southern region of Israel, although the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the rate of attacks had slowed, citing Hamas' apparent need to conserve weapons.