China Warns Of Response To U.S.-Taiwan Meeting

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Despite warnings from China that it would retaliate in some way, the U.S. went ahead with a meeting in LA between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. There were similar threats last year when Pelosi visited Taipei. The usual MO is to launch war games as a show of potential force. After the meeting, Beijing said it would use "resolute measures" in response-a threat Washington seems to be viewing largely as empty saber-rattling.

In Turkey, Erdogan's very shaky May 14 re-election prospects have potentially been strengthened by a third presidential candidate who could split the opposition vote. Muharrem Ince, a former CHP opposition party figure, was added to the ballot over the weekend. Prior to this, Erdogan's chances looked slimmer with only one opposition choice to unify around.

Finland is set to become the next member of NATO; it's official. This is a major provocation for Russia, and Putin will be expected to have a response. Finland's membership means, for the most part, a doubling of NATO's border with Russia.

The Moscow Times broke a story citing an unnamed Defense Ministry official and a source in the Special Forces Veterans Fund as saying that Russian copper tycoon Igor Altushkin is bankrolling the Urals Battalion, a volunteer group fighting in Ukraine. Altushkin's copper company denied any involvement.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

TotalEnergies' delayed $27 billion Iraq project is showing signs of life, with Iraq agreeing to take a smaller stake in the project of 30%--down from a 40% stake as the country attempts to woo foreign investments. The project is for the building of four oil, gas, and renewables projects, with an initial investment of $10 billion over 25 years. The deal has been delayed because TotalEnergies was holding out for a majority stake.

The Mexican government will buy 13 power plants from Iberdrola in a $6 billion deal in what Manuel Obrador referred to as a nationalization of the country's energy markets. The move will give Mexico's state-run power company, Commission Federal de Electricidad, majority control of the country's electricity market (56%), in line with Obrador's nationalization goals across several industries. The U.S. and Canada have both threatened a trade war over the Mexican President's nationalization efforts. The takeover of the power plants will take place within five months. Obrador has had a strained relationship with Iberdrola after threatening to pause diplomatic relations with Spain due to its foothold in Mexico's energy market.

Ovintiv (CA:OVV) said it would purchase 65,000 acres of undeveloped land in the Permian for $4.3 billion from buyout firm EnCap Investments. EnCap is also looking to sell another $3 billion of Permian-focused oil and gas producers-Novo Oil & Gas LLC, and Forge Energy II, sources said this week. The recent boost in oil prices has made M&A in the sector more enticing.

ADNOC is looking to raise $1 billion from the IPO of its shipping and logistics unit, just one month after listing 5% of its gas business, earning $2.5 in the process in what was the world's largest IPO so far this year. The logistics IPO could be launched as soon as May. The gas IPO went over well, drawing $124 billion in investor orders.

Murphy Oil has signed PSAs with the Ivory Coast government for multiple onshore blocks in the country. Exploration activity in the Ivory Coast is heating up following Eni's Baleine field discovery. Murphy Oil was last in Africa years ago when it quit the Republic of Congo after its failed Azurite project.

Vitol will deliver the Philippines' first cargo of LNG later this month to San Miguel Global Power. The LNG will be used to cool down the Ish Floating Storage Unit and commission the first LNG terminal in Batangas Bay. The LNG was loaded in the UAE.

QatarEnergy will acquire a 25% stake in the massive Gas Growth Integrated Project in Iraq as the latter tries to develop local resources to meet its domestic energy needs. The project will look to develop facilities that will recover what is now flared nat gas from oilfields in southern Iraq. The project was initiated by Total in 2021, which will still hold a 45% stake in the project. Basra Oil Company owns 30%.

Discovery & Development

ExxonMobil is quitting its oil prospect in Brazil after a series of deepwater offshore drilling failures over the last five years in the Campos, Santos, and Sergipe-Alagoas basins. Exxon said it would continue to work with its partners in Brazil to analyze the data "to assess the potential for future exploration activities in those blocks." It did skip, however, the latest offshore auction in Brazil in December. Brazil's geology is complex, creating difficult-to-read seismic images due to its thick salt layers and strict environmental regulations. Exxon still has its minority stake in a separate project with partner Equinor.