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A Major Buy Signal For Natural Gas Futures

Maybe it’s just me, but natural gas futures seem to have been very hard to read and predict lately. Unusual weather patterns have caused some volatility in storage numbers, but no move seems able to gain any momentum. It has been the classic “choppy” market for a while, but that may be about to change if a widely followed technical signal is anything to go by.

That signal is the pattern formed when a short-term moving average crosses over the long-term. If it does so with the short-term line moving upwards, it is generally considered a bullish indicator and is called a “golden cross”. When the short-term is moving downwards, it is known as a “death cross” and is seen as bearish.

Of course, as with all technical indicators, there is one potential problem. The pattern that you see, or don’t see for that matter, depends on what you set as “short-term” and “long-term”. As is also true of all technical analysis though, the main value of these crosses is that if a lot of people see them and pay attention, they become a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy as traders position themselves for the expected move. For that reason, it is best to use simple, widely viewed parameters. For swing trading, that means looking at the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages. They are marked by yellow and blue lines respectively on this chart…

As you can see, the crossover came at the start of this week. It was followed by a down day, but not enough to immediately reverse the…

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