In a Daily Ticker Interview with Henry Blodget, economist Gary Shilling makes the case the US is already in recession.
"We've had three consecutive months of declines in retail sales," says Shilling, president of A. Shilling & Co., an economic research and forecasting firm. "That's happened 29 times since they started collecting the data in 1947, and in 27 of the 29 we were either in a recession or within three months of it."
Shilling expects this recession will last about a year and shave about 3.5% from growth from peak to trough.