The International Energy Agency (IEA) has completed a major new study which has deducted that within two decades Iraq could overtake Russia to become the world's second largest oil exporter, and could also be responsible for nearly half of all anticipated growth in global oil production.
The report explained that in order to achieve this position Iraq must solve its internal disputes with the autonomous Kurdish region in the North, and increase its current annual investment in the oil sector from $9 billion to 25 billion until at least 2020.
Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, explained that "developments in Iraq's energy sector are critical for the country's prospects and also for the health of the global economy. But success is not assured, and failure to achieve the anticipated increase in Iraq's oil supply would put global oil markets on course for troubled waters."
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This year, for the first time in 30 years, Iraq's oil production exceeded 3 million barrels a day, overtaking Iran to become the second largest producer in the OPEC group. The study says that Iraq's output can reach 6.1 million barrels a day by 2020, and 8.3 million barrels a day by 2035; with nearly 80% going to China.
It says that "Iraq stands to gain almost $5tn (£3tn) in revenues from oil export over the period to 2035, an annual average of $200bn and an opportunity to transform the country's future prospects. Achieving the required level of oil production and export will require rapid, co-ordinated progress all along the energy supply chain."
By. James Burgess of Oilprice.com
James Burgess studied Business Management at the University of Nottingham. He has worked in property development, chartered surveying, marketing, law, and accounts. He has also… More
Comments
or deduced; as in drawn conclusion from?
secondly; Iraq is increasingly under Iranian control. If you combine Iranian production with Iraqi production what do you get; an almost equivalent production/reserve capacity to Saudi?
What if Iran, Russia and China work in cahoots? Iran/Iraq supplies China, India, Japan and others in AP area. While Russia supplies from the north. As Saudi declines so Iran/Iraq is on the rise.
Given that Syria is entering a quagmire of unimaginable proportions once Assad leaves, and the West seems determined to try to foment regime change in Iran through sanctions and airstrikes, regime change that could create chaos in OPEC, what happens to Iraq in that scenario?
If there is a strike or an air campaign against Iran, Russia will seize upon any pretext to go to Armenia's assistance when Iranian supplied power fails, incl. going through Georgia and cutting/taking control of the Baku-Turkey oil/gas pipelines. Apparently they have the army in place to do this in Dagestan.
The kind of chaos that an aircampaign against Iran could induce in ME oil supplies if Jerusalem and Washington went down that road could be economically unthinkable.