Global oil demand is set to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, raising its 2024 demand growth outlook for a third consecutive month.
Although the IEA flagged today in its monthly report a significantly slower growth rate this year, due to "macroeconomic headwinds, tighter efficiency standards and an expanding EV fleet", the Paris-based agency lifted its forecast for global oil demand growth by 180,000 bpd compared to the estimate from the previous report.
In December, the IEA revised up its 2024 demand growth projection by around 130,000 bpd and expected this year's demand growth at 1.1 million bpd.
Now it sees that growth rate at 1.24 million bpd, for yet another upward revision in demand coming from the IEA.
Oil demand growth is projected to ease from 2.3 million bpd in 2023 to 1.2 million bpd in 2024, the agency said, noting that oil demand growth slowed to 1.7 million bpd year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023 - well below the 3.2-million-bpd growth registered during the second and third quarters of 2023.
The IEA may have revised up - again - its oil demand growth forecast, but its projections are well below those of OPEC, which expects robust demand growth both this year and next.
In its own monthly report, OPEC said on Wednesday that higher global economic growth and solid activity in China will see robust world oil demand growth of 1.8 million bpd in 2025, in its first outlook into next year's demand levels.
OPEC expects global economic growth at 2.8% in 2025, up from the 2.6% growth predicted for 2024, according to the cartel's closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
For this year, OPEC left its 2024 demand growth forecast unchanged from the previous month's projection, at 2.2 million bpd. That's around 1 million bpd higher than the IEA growth estimate for this year.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. More
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Comments
However, the market believes OPEC’s projection which is perceived to reflect market fundamentals far more accurately than the IEA’s. Moreover, it isn’t politically-motivated like the IEA’s.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert