é¹°ç¦å¾·-EFçå°æä¹æ ·ï¼ææ¶åä½ ä¼è§å¾æ¢éå ¬å¸å¯ä¸å ³å¿çå°æ¹æ¯Permiançå°ãPermiançå°å æ®ææå ³æ³¨ï¼äº¤æéé¢æ°å亿ç¾å ç交æéä¸å¨é£éãä½è¿å å¹´æ¥ï¼é¹°ç¦å¾·çå°äºç¸å¯¹å®éçå ´è¶£ååï¼åçäºå¤ç¬è§æ¨¡å¾å¤§ç20-30亿ç¾å 交æï¼å æ¬ConocoPhillipsï¼NYSE:COPï¼ä¸Marathon Oilï¼NYSE:MROï¼ä¹é´ç220亿ç¾å 大å交æãè¿å»å 年产éä¸ç´ä¿æå¨ä¸ä¸ªç¸å¯¹ç¨³å®çæ°´å¹³ï¼è¿æ¯M&Aæ´»å¨å¯¹è¯¥å°åºçå¢å å ³æ³¨çæ å¿ï¼å 为è¿è¥åå°æ°çé»äºåå®äºææ¯åºç¨äºè¿ä¸ªå人å°æ¬ç页岩油ç"ç¥å®"ã
继鹰ç¦å¾·ä¸ç³»åå½»åºçå并åå¢å¼æä½ä¹åï¼æè¿å®£å¸çæ¯Crescent Energyï¼NYSE:CRGYï¼ä¸SilverBow Resourcesï¼NYSE:SBOWï¼ä¹é´çåè®®ãè¿é¡¹ä»·å¼21亿ç¾å çè¡ç¥¨äº¤æ¢å议为SBOWè¡ä¸æä¾é«è¾¾4亿ç¾å çç°ééæ©ã对CRGY带æ¥çæ¯ä¸»è¦çå¢å¼ºè§æ¨¡ãé¤äºä½äºè¶å¿æåé¨DimmitåWebbå¿ç大åé¢ç§¯å¤ï¼é常ç"å¢å¼"å·¥ä¸é»è¾ä¼¼ä¹ä¸å¤ªææ¾ï¼ä½è§æ¨¡å ä¸å¸ä¹å°ãå ¬å¸å¨å ¬åä¸æåºäºè¿ä¸ç¹ï¼
"è§æ¨¡åä¼ä¸ä¼å¿åäºè¡¥èµäº§é¢è®¡éè¿å³æ¶èµæ¬ææ¬è约åè¿è¥æç带æ¥æ¯å¹´6,500ä¸è³1亿ç¾å çé大ååæçã"
SilverBowçæ²¹æ°æ¯ä¾é«äºCrescentï¼è¿å¯¼è´SBOWçè¡ä»·ä¸è·ãç»æä¸ï¼å并åçå ¬å¸å°æ¥ææ¯åå¼è¿è¥æ¶æ´å¹³è¡¡çç产é ç½®ï¼ä»èå¢å¼ºäºäº¤æçä»·å¼ã
æ°çCrescent Energyå ¬å¸å°å¨æ¯æ¥äº§éæ¹é¢æå第äºï¼è¾¾å°25ä¸æ¡¶åæ²¹å½é产åºï¼ä» 次äºEOG Resourcesï¼NYSE:EOGï¼ãå ¶å°åå å°å°ä½¿å ¶æå第ä¸ï¼æå¨EOGåMagnolia Oil and Gasï¼NYSE:MGYï¼ä¹åã
CRGYè¡ç¥¨èª5æ20æ¥å ¬å以æ¥ä¸ç´å¨11.00è³12.00ç¾å ä¹é´çç¸å¯¹ç¨³å®èå´å 交æãè¿ä¸äºå®å¯è½æ´å¤å°ä¸WTIä»·æ ¼çé¢ ç°¸æ§èµ°å¿æå ³ï¼èä¸æ¯å¸åºå¯¹å并çè¯ä¼°ãå¨æ¬æä¸ï¼æ们å°æ¢è®¨å¤ä¸ªå¯è½æ¨å¨é¹°ç¦å¾·å¤èå ´è¶£çå ç´ ï¼ä»¥åæ°çCrescent Energyå ¬å¸çåæ¯ã
é¹°ç¦å¾·
é¹°ç¦å¾·æ¯2008å¹´è³2010å¹´é´ç¬¬ä¸ä¸ªçªç ´ç页岩æ°ç°ä¹ä¸ãå¯éçé»æ¢æ´»å¨ä½¿äº§éå¨2015å¹´è¾¾å°äºå¤§çº¦170ä¸æ¡¶æ²¹å½é/æ¥çåå²æé«ç¹ãéåå¨æ¥ä¸æ¥å å¹´ï¼éç欧佩å ä¸ç¾å½é¡µå²©æ²¹ç产åçä»·æ ¼æï¼äº§éä¸éè³æ¯æ¥100ä¸æ¡¶å·¦å³ãæå年代çä»·æ ¼ä¸æ¶¨ä½¿EF产éååè³æ¯æ¥150ä¸æ¡¶å·¦å³ï¼ä½ç«æ åç紧缩é¢ç®ä½¿å½å产éä¿æå¨110ä¸æ¡¶æ²¹å½é/æ¥å·¦å³ãè¿è¥åçå ´è¶£ä¹è½¬åäºå¤å±ä½Permiançå°ï¼é£éçæ¯æ¥äº§éæ£ä»¥é«éå¢é¿ã
ç¶åæ¯2022å¹´ï¼EFå¼å§åºç°å¤§è§æ¨¡çM&Aæ´»å¨ï¼é¦å æ¯Devon Energyï¼NYSE:DVNï¼æ¶è´Validusç19亿ç¾å ï¼å 个æåæ¯Marathonï¼NYSE:MROï¼ä»¥30亿ç¾å æ¶è´Ensign Natural Resourcesã交æ继ç»ä»¥é£å¿«çé度è¿è¡ï¼2023å¹´è¿æå ¶ä»ä¸äºäº¤æï¼æ£å¦æè¿ä¸ç¯RBN Energyå客æç« ä¸æè¿°ã
æ认为ï¼é¤äºå¢å è§æ¨¡å¤ï¼ææè¿äºM&Aè¿æå ¶ä»å 个æ¨å¨å ç´ ãé¦å ï¼ææ¯åå¾äºé¿è¶³è¿æ¥--æ´é¿çæ°´å¹³äºãå¢å¼ºçåè£ææ¯ãäºé´è·å人工æºè½å¨å±æå--èªæ©æ以æ¥ãè¿ä¸ºéæ°è¿å ¥è¿äºäºååºåãæ¤åçä¸ç碳氢ååç©åé äºæºä¼ãå ¶æ¬¡ï¼EFé è¿Corpus Christieæ°å ´çå ¨çåºå£æ¢çº½ï¼éç¨äºåæ²¹å液å天ç¶æ°ãç±äºæ©æEFçå¼åå·²ç»å»ºç«äºæ¶éåè¿è¾åºç¡è®¾æ½ï¼ç®åç产éåçäºå¸åºååºç¡è®¾æ½çç°æä¼å¿ãæåï¼EFç大é¨åæ´åå¨åæ¥èªäºå¸ææé«æ¯æ¥äº§éçåæ²¹æ¯ä¾ã天ç¶æ°ä»·æ ¼å·²ç»ä½è¿·äºå å¹´ï¼å ¬å¸å©ç¨EFçM&Aæ¥æ¹å产åç»åã
Crescent Energyæ§ä»¶å¾
CrescentåSilverBowé½æéè¿æ¶è´å®ç°åºå¡é©±å¨å¢é¿çåå²ï¼å¯¼è´èµäº§è´åºè¡¨å¯¹äºå¸åºç®å对åºå¡ççæ³ç¥å¾®è¿é«ãPro Formaå ¬å¸çæ æç为1.5åï¼ä½å¨å ¬åä¸æåºï¼å°ä¼å èèéä½è³1åãCrescentå¨2028å¹´å没æå°æï¼è¿ä¸ºéæ°å®æSilverBowåºå¡æä¾äºæºä¼ï¼å ¶å°ææ¥æå¨2029å¹´å以åãéè¿å ¬å¸æä¾çRBLï¼Pro Formaå ¬å¸å°æ¥æ7亿ç¾å çæµå¨æ§ã
åæå¸å°Crescentä½ä¸ºç¬ç«å ¬å¸ ä¹°å ¥ï¼ä¸æ¶¨ä»·æ ¼ç®æ èå´ä»14-21.00ç¾å æ¯è¡ä¸çãCRGYå¨EPS估计æ¹é¢æçææ¾è¶ åºé¢æçåå²ï¼2024年第ä¸å£åº¦ä¸º0.50ç¾å ï¼èé¢æ为0.20ç¾å ã第äºå£åº¦ç估计è¾ç¬¬ä¸å£åº¦é«åº50%ï¼ä¸º0.34ç¾å ãä»ææ¯è§åº¦çï¼è¡ç¥¨ä¼¼ä¹å·²åå¤å¥½æææ¯è¡12.02ç¾å çä¸éé»åï¼åå°Q-3ä¸æä¸è°çEPS估计çæ¯æã
æ»ç»
å ¬å¸ç®åç交æä»·å¼ç¥é«äº3åEV/EBITDAåæ¯æ³¨äº§é2.3ä¸ç¾å ãè¿ä¸¤é¡¹ææ é½æ¯Pro Formaå ¬å¸å°ä¿æçå¯é ææ ãSilverBowçè¡ä¸ä»¬æ¯ tender ä¸è¡SBOWï¼å°æ¶å°3.125è¡ CRGYãæ ¹æ®éæ©ç°éæ¢åè¡ç¥¨çéé¢ä¸åï¼SBOWè¡ä¸å°æ¥ææ°å ¬å¸21-31%çè¡æã
CRGYæ¯ä»éä¸ä½æç«äºåçè¡æ¯ï¼æ¯è¡0.48ç¾å ï¼æ¶çç4.06%ï¼éçåºå¡æ°´å¹³è¾¾å°ç®æ ï¼è¿è¯å®æå¯è½æé«ãå ¬å¸è¿æ¹åäºé«è¾¾150ç¾å çè¡ç¥¨åè´ã
å æ¤ï¼CRGYçèµ·æ¥å¨ç®åæ°´å¹³ä¸æ¯ä¸ä¸ªå¼ºæåçä¹°å ¥éæ©ãä½ä¸ºåèï¼COP/MRO交æçEV/EBITDAè¾¾å°5åï¼æ¯æ¡¶æµå¨ç54,000ç¾å ï¼å ¶ä¸12.7ä¸ç¾å æ¥èªEFã
David Messleræ°åï¼Oilprice.comæä¾
Oilprice.comæ´å¤ç读æç« ï¼
Mr. Messler is an oilfield veteran, recently retired from a major service company. During his thirty… More