Some said that the automobile would never replace the horse, so when it has been said that oil will never be replaced as the main driver behind society's existence, maybe we shouldn't be too quick to believe it. Shell, one of the largest energy companies in the world, has come out and admitted that "by 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free."
It is just one of several bold predictions made in a recently published report titled "New Lens Scenario: A Shift in Perspective for a World in Transition", made all the more remarkable by the fact that is a large oil company that is basically admitting the future decline of its industry.
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Market analysts at the Motley Fool said that "it seems almost impossible that an oil company would make the claim that electric vehicles will be the predominant transportation fuel, but Royal Dutch Shell is making that very claim."
Shell believes that as more and more people move to live in cities, the amount of energy used by cities will increase, and the demands made of the energy will change. Cities around the world currently use 66% of global energy, and over the next 30 years that volume will grow to 80 percent. As urban populations increase public transport will become more popular as it will be the easiest way to travel through inner city areas. Shell claims that it is likely that public transport will be electrically powered, and any cars that are still used on the roads will also be electric.
If more people live in cities, then Shell predicts that there will be a lower demand for travel, which combined with the ever increasing efficiency of internal combustion engines, greater demand for electric vehicles, and the introduction of vehicles powered by cheap LNG, or hydrogen, the global consumption of gasoline and diesel for road transport will decline after peaking in 2035.
They go on to suggest that the increasing efforts to decarbonise the energy sector will mean that by 2060 electricity generation around the world will produce almost zero-CO2 emissions, and that hydrogen will have grown to be a much more prominent form of energy by 2100.
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MNN took this quote from Shells report, highlighting their view of the future of energy in the world:
"By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads. By this time, electricity and hydrogen may dominate, and affordable, plug-in, hybrid hydrogen vehicles offer the ultimate in flexibility and efficiency."
By. James Burgess of Oilprice.com
James Burgess studied Business Management at the University of Nottingham. He has worked in property development, chartered surveying, marketing, law, and accounts. He has also… More