Higher global economic growth and solid activity in China will see robust world oil demand growth of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, OPEC said on Wednesday in its first outlook into next year's demand levels.
OPEC expects global economic growth at 2.8% in 2025, up from the 2.6% growth predicted for 2024, according to the cartel's closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) today.
"With this, global oil demand in 2025 is set to grow by a robust 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, sustained by continued solid economic activity in China, and expected firm growth in other non-OECD countries," OPEC said.
Oil demand growth next year will be driven by nearly 1.7 million bpd growth in non-OECD countries, mostly in China, the Middle East, and India.
OPEC left its 2024 demand growth forecast unchanged from the previous month's projection, at 2.2 million bpd.
This year, OPEC is bringing forward its first outlook for the next year by several months to provide longer-term guidance to the market.
"The undertaking to reach beyond the previously established time horizon of short-term forecasting serves to support the understanding of market dynamics and to support the continued commitment of the OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) to achieve and sustain a stable oil market, and to provide long-term guidance for the market," OPEC said.
In terms of supply, non-OPEC production is set to rise by 1.3 million bpd in each of 2024 and 2025, according to the organization.
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2025 will be supported by expected healthy demand and upstream investment, OPEC said. Oil and gas upstream capital expenditure in non-OPEC countries is expected at around $473 billion next year, according to the cartel.
Growth in 2025 is primarily set to come from the U.S. liquids production, expected to expand by 600,000 bpd, mainly from Permian crude, non-conventional NGLs, and the Gulf of Mexico. Other main growth drivers are expected to be Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with new field start-ups, ramp-ups, or the optimization of existing projects, OPEC said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Comments
The rising demand will be underpinned by rising global economic growth led by China-led Asia Pacific region and the Middle East.
OPEC’s positive and optimistic projections are at variance with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) projection of a peal oil demand by 2030 when OPEC expects oil demand to hit 110 mbd by 2028 and 116 mbd by 2045.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International O Economist
Global Energy Expert