In April 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Rasit Meredow, the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Turkmenistan for a working meeting in Washington, D.C. The meeting followed the Blinken-Meredow meeting at the U.S.-Central Asia (C5+1) ministerial meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan in February 2023.
The U.S. statement on the meeting lacked detail but highlighted the officials discussed the need to "rapidly reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector," which is a priority for in the U.S. administration's climate action plan.
What might the envoys have discussed?
If Turkmenistan and the U.S. embark on closer relations, it may be part of Ashgabat's policy to balance between the U.S., Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran, but will the U.S. expect "balance" to become "tilt" in its (and Israel's) favor? Turkmenistan saw how casually the U.S. abandoned the Afghans after investing two decades and over $2 trillion USD in the failed effort and probably took the lesson about American insouciance in even the gravest matters.
Closer relations may run up against Turkmenistan's declared policy of "permanent neutrality" that is recognized in a UN General Assembly resolution. And events, such as the recent visit of the commander of the U.S. Central Command, and the opening of the Israeli embassy may call that status into question. Turkmenistan's Central Asian neighbors may not be concerned, but Iran will see the presence of more Americans and Israelis in the area as a prelude to an attack on its nuclear research centers and act accordingly.
What will Iran do?
Tehran probably won't do anything too public or that will impede traffic on the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) which, by one estimate, will double its exports to Eurasian countries. Iran will also want to continue its "Look East" policy that has seen closer relations (and more trade) with the Central Asian republics, and will support efforts such as the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Iran railway that will make Iran's ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas options to the Middle Corridor, the favorite of the Americans as it avoids Iran.
Iran may enlist the help of Russia and China, both with influence in the Turkmen capital to put in a word about the hazards of getting too close to the Americans, and that the hazards will come from Washington's short attention span, not they.
Iran can bring pressure to bear on Turkmenistan via the "Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea" as the parties to the convention have resolved most, but not all the issues. The parties - Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan - resolved to call the oil- and gas-rich sea an area of "special legal status" rather than a "sea" or a "lake," and use bilateral negotiations to define seabed boundaries, which may favor Iran's greater diplomatic resources (and the fact that it has Russia and Iran on speed dial.)
The American actor Woody Allen once said, "80 percent of success is showing up" and that is something the American president has never done in Central Asia. The rulers of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and China, Xi Jinping, leave nothing to chance: Xj has visited every one of the republics and has been to Kazakhstan four times and Uzbekistan three times; Putin has visited Kazakhstan twenty-seven times (the countries share a 7,644-kilometre border), and has been to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at least a dozen times each.
The leaders of the Central Asian republics have cordial relations with Putin and Xi and know their limitations. A visit by the American president would signal Washington's intent see the Central Asian republics not as tools in struggles against Kabul, Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow but as viable potential political and economic partners in a part of the world it ignored until it needed help in Afghanistan.
By James Durso for Oilprice.com
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James D. Durso is the Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy. In 2013 to2015, he was the Chief Executive Officer of AKM… More