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Peak Oil is Not a Future Event – Saudi Arabia’s Overstated Reserves Help Prove This

By Business Insider - Feb 18, 2011, 8:35 AM CST

A lot of noise is being made about Wikileaks info that says the US thinks the Saudi's are overstating their Proven Reserves by about 40%.

This isn't news.  It has been known for years.  In the Mid-80's the Arab producers decided, after the American and other foreign experts had been shown the door, they had more oil in the ground than was previously known.

Without having found any new fields, without any advancement in technology, some of the Arab oil producers announced increases in Proven Reserves of over 100%.  For some time, Wall Street referred to these fictitious numbers as "Paper Barrels" and ignored them.  But as time passed, they began to be accepted in the mainstream.

This is one of the major points of oilman Matt Simmons' book - Twilight in the Desert.  He was in the business back in the early 80's (and well before).  He knew the numbers were fictitious and called for independent verification of the reserves.

These charts should eliminate any comfort you might have felt thinking Saudi Arabia and the other Arab nations would be able to keep oil flowing for decades.

                                                     "Proven Reserves"
in Thousand Million Barrels, Source: BP's Statistical Review Of World Energy 2010

Peak Oil - Not Just a Myth

Peak Oil is not when we run out of oil, it is when fields hit their "peak" and production declines.  The US has been in decline for decades.  Many other major producers have been in decline for years.

Most concerning is the OECD has been in decline for a decade and this means the Developed World is relying more and more on the Developing, and less friendly and stable, countries for its oil. 

All the information below is from BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2010.  It shows that Peak Oil is not a future event, it is happening today and has been going on for years.

By. John Riley

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Comments

  • Anonymous - 18th Feb 2011 at 11:55am:
    What's going on? Another superb article, but I wouldn't count Saudi Arabia out. Yes, for what it is worth, peak oil is a reality, but who cares when the oil price might escalate when global recovery picks up speed, and the oil price reaches ... a number that I am afraid to repeat.Something else. I put Wikileaks in the category of the evening newspapers in e.g.England, and that is NOT a compliment!
  • Anonymous - 19th Feb 2011 at 6:23am:
    Re; WikileaksI think you're somewhat overstating the case Fred, though I agree that UK evening newspapers are dire...There is so much info in Wikileaks they need a search engine all by themselves. If a resesrcher can make the time to look through the documents and piece stuff toghether, then relate that to other,more reliable info, I'm sure a lot can be gained. But as with the Internet as a whole, 90% probably is dross...
  • Anonymous - 19th Feb 2011 at 7:28am:
    Matt Simmon's excellent book, "Crop Circles in the Desert" highlights the validity of outside estimates of Saudi Arabia's reserves. (asst. Michael Lynch)These estimates can be readily converted into a clean burning biofuel using anaerobic digestion. The Indians have proven this long ago.
  • Anonymous - 20th Feb 2011 at 9:28am:
    Michael Lynch, Alfonso? I cant think of anybody who has been so consistently wrong where the oil price is concerned, but he is still in business because he is selling the nonsense and fantasies that people love to hear. Exactly what does he have for us now?
  • Anonymous - 20th Feb 2011 at 1:32pm:
    The silver lining is that Net importing nations will have to repatriate their manufacturing. This will increase employment and solve many of todays problems. The shipping component of cost of goods will become too large. Those that depend on exports are in for difficult times.DY
  • Anonymous - 20th Feb 2011 at 1:50pm:
    "I cant think of anybody who has been so consistently wrong where the oil price is concerned..." If you say so, Fred, I will take you at your word. But that only means that you can't think of anybody . . . whereas most observers of the sociological phenomenon of the "peak oil doom" movement will readily think of persons who were more consistently wrong.One such person lost a $10,000 bet with John Tierney, made wild predictions about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010, and shuffled off his mortal coil prematurely in his own backyard pool -- with unknown blood toxicology results.There are many others who make a living shucking and jiving their goods to credulous doom-thinkers every day. Consistently wrong, but idolized by the sociopathological doom-thinking followers who must get their daily fix of doom.A pity, truly.
  • Anonymous - 21st Feb 2011 at 5:15am:
    You might have to take a memory course, Alfonso. As I have explained to you and everyone else in this forum, when the oil price can reach 147 dollars, a peak is almost uninteresting.As for the bet between John Tierney and Matt Simmons, it was not for ten thousand, but if it had been for that amount, ten thousand was saturday night disco money for Matt Simmons. As for John Tierney and the late Julian Simon, they don't know beans about oil, and the mention of them in this site doesn't make any sense at all.
  • Anonymous - 21st Feb 2011 at 2:21pm:
    Fred, your memory may not be what it used to be. But as you say, the bet was for $5,000, rather than $10,000.http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/12/john-tierney-officially-has-won-his.htmlYour broad generalisation ad hominems against Tierney and Simon lacks heft. Try to beef it up with actual information, if you want it to be taken seriously.As I recall, Julian Simon won his bet against Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich has been far more badly wrong in his 40 + years of predictions than your pet punching bags. :-* "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate ..." The words of Paul Ehrlich in a book published in 1970. Those were the opening words, and the book went downhill from there......
  • Anonymous - 22nd Feb 2011 at 12:44am:
    The book may have gone downhill, Alfonso, but not the idea. It's back, and stronger than ever.As for Julian Simon, he said that the more people the better, because then you have more brains to solve the world's problems. But we don't need many of the brains that I see walking around these days - we need some creative intelligence.As for Tierney, who invited him to this party? It wasn't you I hope, because if it was you'll have to show him the door the next time he starts running off at the mouth about energy.
  • Anonymous - 22nd Feb 2011 at 8:37am:
    Like a bad penny, Paul Ehrlich's failed prophecies continue to show up, as you say, Fred. But that is no reason to give them any credence.Julian Simon's book "Ultimate Resource" is freely available on the internet.http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/Why not quote directly from the online book? Then anyone who is curious can read the offending fragments in context.