This week, the European Commission will give an "oral update" on how Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova are faring on their respective EU membership paths. This update will first be given to ambassadors of the 27 EU member states in Brussels on June 21, and then in Stockholm when the European affairs ministers from all the bloc's capitals meet for an informal EU general affairs council.
Don't expect this update to be very detailed; it is essentially a midterm review of the proper EU enlargement package that the European Commission will present in the second half of October. That package will give a thorough assessment and, crucially, recommendations on how to proceed with the trio -- recommendations that the member states later in December, via unanimity, will either endorse or reject.
The smart money, according to several officials I have spoken to on background who are familiar with the matter, is that there will be a green light by the end of the year for Moldova and Ukraine to start EU accession negotiations. The reasoning is that they are progressing well on the various conditions that were given to them in 2022 when they became official EU candidate countries.
Deep Background: The picture is less clear, though, when it comes to Georgia. Unlike Chisinau and Kyiv, Tbilisi did not get candidate status last year but currently sits one rung below the pair as a potential candidate country.
The Georgian government says they are hoping for a candidate status recommendation from the European Commission and EU member states this year and that they are well on their way to fulfill all 12 recommendations given to them last year by Brussels, apart from one: the need to address the issue of political polarization in the country, which the government claims has not been possible due to a noncooperative opposition.
EU officials I spoke with are less enthusiastic about Georgia's progress, though, with some even questioning whether Tbilisi is really interested in closer EU ties at the moment. They point to recent events such as the attempt to enact a foreign agent law and the resumption of flights to Russia as recent examples.
Yet despite all that, there is still very much a chance that the European Commission could recommend candidate status for Georgia in October and, by the end of the year, EU member states would be agreeable. After speaking with various EU officials, there are roughly four reasons that this may happen, even though Tbilisi is considered a long way from achieving all, or even most, of the dozen recommendations set out in the summer of 2022.
Drilling Down:
What You Need To Know: The debate about how an enlarged EU should work is slowly gathering pace in various European capitals. Already last month, state secretaries for European affairs broached the topic and will do so again when they meet in Stockholm on June 21-22. EU leaders might also touch upon it when they gather in Brussels the following week.
A French-German working group on EU institutional reform, consisting of a dozen nongovernmental experts, was set up at the beginning of the year and is set to deliver its preliminary report in September. That might all sound very bureaucratic, but it is significant that the EU's two biggest member states are now openly and seriously considering enlarging the club, especially France, which for a long time has been quite skeptical about adding new members from the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe. As one eastern EU official recently told me on background: "It is clear that we are no longer talking about 'if' when it comes to enlargement but rather 'how' and 'when.'"
Of course, no one can offer any firm timelines: Ultimately that depends on how quickly countries that want to join can reform, as well as how great the desire is in all 27 current members to welcome them to the bloc. But already by December, there is hope among EU officials I have spoken to that a clear path for EU reform should be ready and that this will be a key issue on which the European Parliament elections in June 2024 will be fought.
Deep Background: Ahead of the meeting in Stockholm this week, the Swedish European Union Affairs Minister Jessika Roswall sent a letter to her counterparts in other EU member states titled Getting Ready For The Future -- A Discussion On Policy Orientation In View Of A Future Enlargement.
Seen by RFE/RL, the letter offers few concrete details about what sort of changes the bloc will need going forward, but there are some outlines with Roswall noting that "importantly, to have a fruitful discussion of substance, the starting point should not be the issue of treaty reforms. Since initiating such a process at this point would be both divisive and cumbersome, it should be embarked upon only with a broadly shared view of what we need to change."
Treaty reform has long been a difficult issue in the EU considering that it tends to lead to time-consuming referendums in various member states, so the question will be how to avoid it if the EU is to expand to include large countries like Ukraine or all six Western Balkan states. The Swedish minister noted that a working dinner on EU reforms will take place on June 21 together with former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and Italian political scientist Nathalie Tocci joining the ministers, followed by more discussions the next day on three broad themes that she describes as "the union's general policy objectives, budgetary and financial issues, and the institutional setup."
Drilling Down:
After his trip to the United States last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will make his way to another key alliance member, Germany, on June 19. While there, he will meet with the chancellor as well as the foreign and defense ministers. The upcoming July summit in Vilnius and what Ukraine could be offered both in terms of potential future membership and more immediate military aid will be high on the agenda. The leaders will also witness Air Defender 23, NATO's largest-ever air drill, involving 25 countries.
With Serbia and Kosovo once again on the brink, the EU is scrambling to come up with a diplomatic response. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is hoping to host both Serbian President Alexander Vucic and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti in Brussels this week for what he is calling a "crisis management meeting." No date has been set, but it is clear it won't be a regular Brussels dialogue meeting between Belgrade and Pristina in which the EU, for over a decade, has attempted to normalize relations between the pair.
By RFE/RL
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