In late January, NATO began what it has called its "largest military exercise since the Cold War."
Steadfast Defender 24 involves 90,000 troops from all 31 alliance members as well as NATO invitee Sweden for four months of maneuvers by land, sea, and air.
You have to go all the way back to 1988 for the last NATO exercise that involved more troops: Reforger with 125,000. In between, the Trident Juncture exercise in 2018 included 50,000 personnel.
While official NATO documents don't say outright that they're training against a potential Russian offensive on allied territory, it's clear that's what is on their minds.
The alliance says it is testing responses "during a simulated emerging conflict scenario with a near-peer adversary."
Exercise maps will show an adversary with a fictitious name, but privately my NATO sources acknowledge without hesitation that "of course this means Russia."
Deep Background: Take a look at the geography and what the alliance will practice, and it becomes even more evident.
Roughly speaking, Steadfast Defender 24 includes two phases. The first, which kicked off slowly at the end of January, involves the transatlantic reinforcement of forces. This is in fact the key to see if the United States can effectively deploy a large number of troops and equipment to continental Europe to mount a defense.
Don't underestimate the symbolism, as the United States nears a presidential election that culminates on November 5. The image of U.S. troops training alongside other nations in mock amphibious assaults in the Atlantic in the next two months, involving more than 50 naval vessels including aircraft carriers, frigates, and destroyers, could help assuage European fears of a less committed United States down the road.
The second phase of the exercise is equally crucial and is likely to show whether NATO is capable of defending its vulnerable eastern flank -- "every inch of allied territory," as NATO officials like to put it.
Starting in mid-February and running till the end of May, many of the elements will take place on land and in the sky, involving up to 80 air platforms including F-35 fighter jets, helicopters, and drones, as well as more than 1,000 combat vehicles, including 166 tanks.
The epicenter is Poland, where a major river crossing will be attempted in March, but also in the Baltic states, with Germany acting as a major hub for reinforcement and coordination.
There will also be exercises throughout the Nordic region, as well as Czechia, Hungary, North Macedonia, and Romania.
Drilling Down
By RFE/RL
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Comments
However, there is a possibility that the NATO exercise could be aiming at providing indirect support to Ukraine which by changing the commander-in-chief of its armed forces has admitted for the first time that the game is over and that Russian forces are prevailing in the battlefields.
Either way, US-led NATO should be careful not to provoke Russia at a time when President Putin is sensing victory.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert